The retreat of the different exchange rates in the last week, after the electoral result that showed the first place of the presidential candidate of Union for the Homeland, Sergio Massa, and the runoff scenario with Javier Mileiled to a decrease in the inflationary expectations of the consulting firms in view of the October data.
Pre-election estimates indicated a panorama of rising priceswhich significantly raised the possibility that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) would exceed double digits for the third consecutive month.
Now, with the calm of the exchange market, Most of the consulting firms corrected their forecasts for the tenth month of the year and placed them around 10%.
EcoGo was one of those who took that path, reducing her inflation forecast from 10.2 to 9.8%.
About, Rocío Bisang, economist at that consulting firm, indicated that “with the data given by the surveys before the elections we expected to see another reaction in the following days in the exchange rate and prices,” recognizing that “the rThe result once again ended up surprising us and that prompted a low in projections”.
At the same time, he noted that there was “a certain correction in some prices that had skyrocketed before the elections in search of coverage,” explaining another factor that determined the change in projection.
From Ecolatina They continue that path, estimating that the October CPI is around 10% and with possibility of breaking the double-digit trendalthough they clarify that the forecast is without having the survey of the second fortnight of the month.
Inflation: other consulting firms are less optimistic
The Economist Juan Luis Bour from FIEL He added that they are “around 11%, which could be 10.7% (with luck).”
Even with this forecast, the specialist warned that “if the fourth week accelerates (due to the increase in meat, more devaluation, etc.) then it will be somewhat above 11%.”
The Freedom and Progress Foundation The forecast also changed, although it is above the other firms and observes an upward trend, reflecting that the data will be between 11.9 and 12.4%, according to the latest survey, which does not include the last week of the month.
Analyst Eugenio Mari specified that “the slowdown in the weekly CPI that had been perceived in the last weeks of September was reversed in the first week of the month, when we registered a variation of 4.2%, while in the second it was 4.5%”.
As for the food pricewhich has a great impact on the inflation data, from LCG they contributed with the survey of 8,000 prices in supermarkets that the monthly variation of the item was 7.2% in the last four weeks and 7.9% end to end in the same period .
The Government also expects a decrease in inflation. This is reflected in the weekly monitoring that is communicated on Fridays by the Secretariat of Economic Policy by Gabriel Rubinstein, who in his last publication showed an increase in the third week of October that averaged 2.2 percent.
In this way, the cumulative increase In the last four weeks it is estimated at 8.4%.
Source: Ambito
