The forceful Sergio Massa’s triumph in the October 22 election surprised the business world, which is now recalculating its strategy facing what they consider to be a new process. Industrialists and leaders from the countryside agree that a victory for the Minister of Economy avoids a “jump into the void,” although they predict difficulties in the short term due to the shortage of foreign currency. Expectation for the figure of Roberto Lavagna and the call for a government of national unity.
Between surprise and relief. This is how the reactions of the Red circle given the result of the electoral contest. Surprise, because many were still betting on a devalued candidacy of Patricia Bullrich. In this last week, one of the top leaders of a major business center was even heard to say that “he already had everything arranged with Melconian.” Relief because, as businessmen from agriculture and industry agreed “A victory for Massa avoids a leap into the void.”
Since October 22, businessmen and women are in GPS mode, recalculating some variables of the economy as well. With a dollarizing scenario that is receding horizon, the parallel quotes of the North American currency deflated. The blue at $990, the CCL around $836 and the MEP up to $823. Meanwhile, the price for December in the futures market fell from $812, before the election, to $608 last Friday.
On this last point, an important official from the economic team highlighted that “The exposure of the Central Bank in futures sharply decreased” and pointed out that in recent days the monetary entity collected a “very important” profit in pesos. The BCRA also closed the week with the largest purchases of the last month, adding more than US$401 million between all the wheels.
“The scenario brought tranquility to businessmen. Everyone knows Massa. They know how she rules and they have her phone number. Now, we are clear that there will be many problems until November 20, but also that if he wins there will be no transition because on the first business day there will be measures. “That gives some peace of mind,” a leading figure in the industry told Ámbito. agroindustry.
In this sector, the most dynamic in terms of exports, they are clear that in any case there will be difficulties that are difficult to remove in the short term. “Beyond the election, there are no dollars and solving that is going to take time,” they say. In another of the items that provide foreign currency, the energeticthey also highlight the knowledge of the State that the Minister of Economy has, although They expect “between five and six difficult months to sort out the macro.”
With all these challenges ahead, this Sunday from Tucumán Massa insisted with the call for a government of national unity. With businessmen, men from work and civil society. A Buenos Aires leader who frequently talks with Roberto Lavagna believes that an armed group of this type and less “radicalized” brings closer the possibility of a more active participation of the former minister. of Economy in a future government.
The figure of Lavagna is music to the ears of businessmen. They believe that it would provide credibility to the plan to stabilize the economy that Massa intends to promote based on the postulates that he has been reiterating in the campaign: increased exports, fiscal and commercial surplus, with accumulation of reserves and debt reduction.
Voices that resonate
What many say quietly, others choose to make public. This is the case of the businessman in the agricultural sector. Bernardo Grobocopatel that announced that he will vote for the current Minister of Economy: “We are facing two candidates. One is a dangerous leap into the void, into the unknown, who has no experience to govern, and that can be very bad for Argentina,” he said, while he described Massa as “a person with a lot of management capacity who took charge.” of the country at a very difficult time.”
On the industrial side, Jose Urtubey He noted that the victory of the Unión por la Patria candidate was “reassuring” and classified Javier Milei as “anti-federal and unitary”, which is why he considered that “it is not viable for Argentina.” In the interview he gave to Radio 10, he also anticipated that his task in the coming days will be “to convince colleagues to revitalize a true national bourgeoisie.”
And Javier Milei?
The interest that the libertarian candidate aroused in the Red Circle since August 13 was suddenly diluted and without anesthesia. That curiosity was based in part on the lack of knowledge of his economic plan and the references that would accompany him. Now it is diminished by two factors: the distance of seven points that the Unión por la Patria candidate gained from him and the revelation of the enigma: if the adventure prospers, his team will negotiate with Mauricio Macri and probably, the He too.
So much so, that the representative of one of the main business chambers, saddened by Bullrich’s defeat, contacted those who served as Milei’s “economic advisors” to ask what the pillars of a possible program would be and received a forceful and synthetic “no idea” as an answer. A good listener few words.
Between Monday and Tuesday, the first real polls of the runoff scenario will be known to the candidates’ teams. Those that are not published in the media and that tend to have a more realistic view of the movements of the electorate. An all-round businessman, who usually disperses his chips in different baskets, wondered Who will contribute the US$50 million needed for this section of the campaign if Milei does not appear in a competitive position?. At this point, everyone wants to bet on the winner.
Source: Ambito
