After the 12.7% registered in Septemberinflation would have closed October again in double digits. This is clear from different surveys private, which place it around 11% monthly. This occurred despite the fact that in the days after the presidential elections there would have been some moderation in price increases, hand in hand with greater stability in alternative dollars.
In view of what may happen in November in inflationary matters, beyond the high inertia and the different price agreements, Analysts maintain that the uncertainty surrounding the runoff and what may happen – again – with parallel exchange rates will greatly influence.
The moderation in the increases was reflected, for example, in the Index of Prices in Supermarkets carried out by the CESO: In the last week of the month (as of October 30), a weekly increase of 1.23% was recorded, while the previous variations had been 2.04 and 2.3%, respectively..
In this context, Francisco Ritorto, economist at the consulting firm ACM, told Ámbito: “We have not closed the last days of October, but we expect monthly inflation data between 10.5% and 10.7% for October.” “It was a quite particular month: the possible results expected in the elections caused reactions in the exchange rate and prices in the week before October 22. Once the electoral horizon was cleared, A price correction began to be seen in recent days, also accompanied by a certain ‘quietness’ in exchange rates this last week.”explained the analyst.
Meanwhile, the CPI measured by the consulting firm Orlando Ferreres for the GBA reflected an increase of 10.6% in October (in September, for the firm it had been 10.7%). “As for the main items, Leisure, Home equipment and operation and Food and beverages led the increases of the month, registering monthly increases of 18.2%, 12.2% and 11.2% respectively, followed by Education and Goods several, which presented a variation of 9.8% and 9.6% respectively,” they detailed.
For his part, the CPI of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation rose 11.8% monthly in October (it had been 11% in September). “With this variation, our CPI shows a new acceleration and has chained three consecutive months with a double-digit variation, constituting the worst streak since the January-March quarter of 1991,” the firm maintained.
Looking at what may happen in November regarding inflation, a lot will have to do with what happens with the ballot and the dollar. “November is very conditional on elections, which makes it a big unknown in terms of inflation. According to the result, the forecasts on the exchange rate will be rearranged, which may imply more ‘gas on fire’, or relatively calm prices,” Ritorto explained.
“Besides, core inflation continues at a rate well above regulated prices: the freezing of rates, medicines, fuels, price agreements, among others, also allowed October inflation to be contained a little. The issue is, when these freezes and price agreements are uncovered, the inflationary inertia will accelerate again, repeating – or exceeding – the values seen in August-September,” stressed the ACM economist.
Food
In private measurements that follow the evolution of food, a slowdown was also observed in the last week. This is the case of the survey by the LCG firm: “In the last week of the month, the Food and Beverage Survey marked an increase of 0.7% weekly, slowing down 3.2 pp compared to the previous week“, they pointed out from the firm.
In any case, they highlighted that the monthly average inflation was 7.2% and the tip-to-tip measurement reached 7.9% in the last four weeks, “leaving a higher drag for November.”
Meats rose 6% in the month and, although it was not among the categories with the greatest increases, it explained 26% of the monthly inflation in food surveyed by the consulting firm.
“The price variation in mass consumption remains high, at 12.2% on average in October, driven by an increase of 14% in Beverages, 9.6% in Personal Care and 9.2% in Food. The Price Anchor Just in large stores began to show a lack of stock on the shelves and the price distortions in the mass consumption market are increasingly significant,” analyzed Damián Di Pace, director of the consulting firm Focus Market.
Source: Ambito
