Tsunami of debates to understand the runoff and the day after. The schedule doesn’t stop. Dusting off José and Celestino. Plan is offered. Another busy summer. A cheap CCL?
As planned in advance, it was a feverish week of face-to-face meetings and virtual, not only at the local level but also outside borders. The Argentine case, despite its economic and financial performance, arouses the interest of international analysts and investors. From Washington to London to Sao Paulo and Miami were the epicenter of meetings to analyze the prospects for the runoff and what may happen next.
The level of uncertainty about what is to come was reflected in the large audiences at each meeting. Several of them even overlapped despite the time difference, so they had different devices on the operating tables to follow as many as they could. Among the most commented on in the post-closure period were the IIF with Martín Castellano and Kezia McKeague, the one from BlackToro with Gabriel Ruiz and Fernando Marengo, the one from EMTA with Martín Soler (HSBC Asset Management), Pilar Tavella (Barclays), Ezequiel Alberto Zambaglione (Balanz Capital), Graham Stock (RBC BlueBay Asset Management) and Marco Ruijea, and locally the CMF with Gustavo Cañonero among several others such as Cohen with Polo, Vázquez and Parrondo. Of course, the traditional monthly meetings of the main local consulting firms also took place, some of which have a direct line to the bunkers of both presidential candidates. But the wave does not stop and there are already many more scheduled for next week, in Sao Paulo, New York and London.
In all meetings, the million dollar questionwhich today has no answer, or at least some hide the letters or do not really know anything, is What will Massa do, what is his economic plan, if he has one. Some risk that it will be more of the same, but reordering the macro as much as possible. The numbers that are shown, openly, in the meetings give chills, especially the adjustments in the rates of public services and other regulated prices.
In it Milei caseNor is much known, nor is the team, beyond the dollarization project. Everyone seems more comfortable with Massa, although no one dares to rule out the libertarian scenario, which they consider a leap into the void, more than anything because it is not known how public affairs can be managed, and even more so taking into account the challenges ahead. An inflationary flash is not ruled out either, and the retrospective on the experience of Gelbard and Rodrigo, who finished in the famous Rodrigazo. According to the consensus, we are on the verge of that situation. It all depends on what the exchange rate policy will be like and its timing. Speaking of plans, a legendary consultant commented that Last Monday night, the program designed by the Mediterranean Foundation led by Carlos Melconian was offered to Sergio Massa, who said “no.”. Another colleague added that in the economic teams of Macri and Milei what is seen is chaos and growing antagonism. Something similar to what happened when Patricia Bullrich imported to the Melco team. She said that for now this struggle does not seem resolved or organized.
About him runoff, The popular belief is that it will be resolved by a very narrow margin, and events like the gasoline one disorient any candidate and do not suit him. On the other hand, the libertarian’s campaign also does not show order and coordination and statements from “piantavotes” spokespersons continue to appear. What everyone is very clear about is that the summer will be busy, even with high monthly inflation rates. Today strategists wonder if the CCL of $900 contains the expectations, and some maintain that it is cheap, others put on the table the values of terminal crises such as the one of $3,000 in today’s pesos of the hyper of 89. Today the one of the exit one to one is less than $800.
Source: Ambito
