The total balance of loans in pesos in October to the private sector reached a level of $14.70. trillionrepresenting an increase in the last 365 days of $8.30 billion, equivalent to 131.2% annually, values that are below the inflation of the period, as revealed in a report by First Capital Group.
During the last month, the variation was $1.87 trillion, which represents an increase of 14.5%, a value that in this case is above the projected price increase. “This month is distinguished by a recovery of credit in almost all segments,” they specified.
The personal loan line increased in nominal terms by 7.1% monthly, the balance amounted to $1,808,574 million for the accumulated totalpresenting a year-on-year growth of 82.7%, compared to $990,177 million at the end of the same month of the previous year.
“If we take into account the values adjusted for inflation, this will be a new month of decline for financing to families, confirming the annual decline that it has been showing. It has remained the only line with a decrease in real terms for the month. The rise in the active interest rate works as a brake by discouraging demand, because although it is in line with the expected rise in prices, when we look at the Total Financial Cost, there are few opportunities to carry out convenient debt,” he indicated. Guillermo Barbero, Partner at First Capital Group
Operations through credit cards, according to the latest data reported by the Central Bank, record a balance as of 10-31-2023 of $4,622,876 million, which means a nominal 20% increase compared to the end of last month, and practically double the expected inflation values for this period. Interannual growth reached 146.0%, remaining at the same level as the estimated inflation for the year.
“It is known that we began the most active commercial period in our market for consumers, this partly explains the expansion of the month. Furthermore, the current rates established by the BCRA for this instrument, although they are at a high level, are below those that the market would set. The same circumstance occurs with the interest-bearing installment programs of Ahora 12, which constitutes an incentive for the use of plastic” he continued.
Regarding mortgage credit lines, including those adjustable for inflation/UVA, during September they had an increase of 9% with respect to the stock of $498,756 million of the previous month, accumulating a total balance at the closing of $543,790 million and a year-on-year increase of 48.%, all in nominal terms. “In real values, the portfolio are declining a little this month and notably over the last yearbut it remains remarkably valid in times of financial crisis like the one we are going through.”
The collateral credit line presents, according to data published by the BCRA, a portfolio balance at the end of October 2023 of $857,130 million, growing 99.5% versus the portfolio at the end of the same month of 2022 of $429,608 million, remaining below inflation again. The variation with respect to the balance of the previous month marked an increase of 9.3%, accumulating more than two years of consecutive monthly nominal increases and a monthly variation that is estimated to be very close to the inflation of the recently completed month.
“Current rate levels and uncertainty about future economic plans prevent timely lending “What this operation requires, the conjunction of these, and some other circumstances, do not allow this line to recover the dynamism it knew how to have a couple of years ago.”
In relation to commercial loans, this line saw its balance increase by 14% in the month, clearly above inflation, placing it with a portfolio stock of $5,832,658 million. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the increase is 155.8%, the only line that manages to clearly exceed the CPI values expected for this period.
“As we noted last month, the most active commercial period begins for an important segment of our market and that pushes merchandise inventories up with the consequent need for financing. The rise in asset values and the cost of financing also contribute to increasing the balances owed by companies and entrepreneurs,” Barbero explained.
Regarding loans in dollars, compared to last month, the total amount presented a positive variation of 1.9%. Regarding the interannual variation, it showed an increase of 4.1%. The stock of loans in dollars is US$3,753 million. 65% of the total debt in foreign currency continues to be the line of commercial loans, which rose 5.1% in the year but fell 2.3% compared to the previous month.
Credit cards registered a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. In October there was an increase of 8.1% compared to the previous month. “As a result of the rise in the currency exchange rate in the informal markets, which most consumers access, it was convenient for travelers to use plastic instead of other alternatives. These circumstances are very temporary and promote unwanted benefits for certain sectors of the population,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
