As for the amount of reserves that the agency will have at the end of the year, he estimated that the figure will be around US $ 3.5 billion. In 2020, it closed with US $ 3.3 billion, a fairly similar value deepened by the chronic problem in Argentina, the lack of dollars and as a consequence, an exchange rate instability that usually deepens at the end of the year.
“In the best scenario until March. A normal month of imports is US $ 5.5 billion and payments to the IMF are almost US $ 4 billion until March. We are going through a narrow gorge. The Government tries to manage the amounts of the dollar and its price. For quantities it restricts and for prices it manages the exchange rate. But since everything is inconsistent, the exchange gap pays the price. There the monetary policy fails, “he added.
On the other hand, the economist offered the different scenarios that the government may take to take care of the dollars it has left. At first, he assured that the possibility of deepening the restrictions is not ruled out. A second option is related to the possibility of using reserve requirements (something that he completely ruled out) and, thirdly, the prioritization of certain operations – favoring imports – so as not to slow down the economy.
At the same time, Redrado assured that the government was “running after events” in the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF): “The periphery of the negotiation was privileged. The level of rates, terms and even the global financial architecture were discussed “
“Time was lost. The center of the issue was not discussed, a fiscal, monetary and exchange program, what transformations the country needs to grow. Also, because today there is no talk of pension or labor reforms to grow. It can be left to the Argentina make its own program, “he said.
Finally, the economist warned: “Today with a stabilization plan it is no longer enough. A stabilization and growth program needs to be presented to the entire political class. ”
Source From: Ambito
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