Economic restrictions continue to complicate the situation. In foreign trade media it is pointed out that The Government, for days, has set a limit of 40 million dollars for imports that are channeled through the official market (approximately a seventh of the demand), with the consequent negative impact on activity.
A key piece of information is also the evolution of purchasing power. He disposable income of the population (what remains by subtracting expenses that cannot be easily cut such as rent, education, public services or health) would fall 12.9% in November, after having risen 8.3% in September and 1.4% in October – due to the income restructuring measures ordered by the Ministry of Economy, according to Ecolatina’s projection.
About, The month started with a strong acceleration in food prices. They rose 5.1% in the first week of Novemberaccording to Eco Go, and, if the trend continues, They would register a monthly increase of 13.2%, taking the general consumer price index to 12.2%.
That is to say, in some aspects the economic situation has become more complicated days before the runoff compared to when voting was done in the general elections.
With everything, The Unión por la Patria candidate and Minister of Economy is managing to avoid the worst scenario. It is what would occur if there were a loss of deposits in the banking system and a surge in alternative dollars. Although the blue dollar rose this Thursday to $950, it is below the record of$1,100 registered last October 23. In any case, specialists point out that the situation remains very fragile at a time when net reserves are negative in the order of 10,000 billion dollars.
Deposits were also recovered (fixed terms grew almost $700,000 million between October 23 and 31 (5.7%), after having fallen $1.2 billion between September 29 and October 23), according to private reports.
The Treasury Palace can also show that it has achieved expand jobs, one of Massa’s main campaign arguments. In August, formal employment grew 4.1% in year-on-year terms, according to information from the Argentine Integrated Pension System (SIPA), although the greatest expansion occurred in the monotributistas segment with 10% in the period, that is, employment of low quality.
Growth in employment is linked to resilient economic activity, which even with the drought, showed an increase of 0.3% year-on-year in the eighth month of the year. Although, in September 2023, the manufacturing industrial production index (IPI) shows a drop of 3.6% compared to the same month in 2022.
Diagnosis
One of the questions that generates the most interest is who will lead the economy in the next government. There is a consensus among economists that, whatever political force is imposed, it will be necessary to carry out a stabilization plan to avoid a crisis.
In this regard, private consulting firms draw a complicated outlook for next year. The last publication of Latin Focus Consensus foresees that the economy will continue to contract next year -1.3%- “as consumers suffer the prolonged effects of hyperinflation and the weakening purchasing power of the peso.”
Although the report considers that the expected increase in exports will play in favor of the economy, it warns that “A possible debt default, the continuation of policies hostile to the market and further falls in the exchange rate pose downside risks.”
In the surroundings of Javier MileI keep the name under lock and key and only comment that “He will be a well-known economist who, for more information, brought Milei the solution to the Leliqs problem.””.
Among those close to LLA it is said that Federico Sturzeneggerformer president of the Central Bank during the presidency of Mauricio Macri, He is working on the libertarian leader’s teams. Milei himself described him as a “colossus” in journalistic statements.
For his part, Massa announced that it will not be a man of his political strength who will lead the Treasury Palace. This statement gave rise to different names of economists such as Martín Redrado, Martín Lousteau and Marina Dal Poggetto. Likewise, as he was able to know Ambitthe candidate maintains conversations with Carlos Melconian, the former candidate for minister for Together for Change.
Source: Ambito
