Wow, today is a holiday! Expectation for the counterpoint between the Tiger and the Lion. The key to the runoff. The minister warned, and now what to expect from the official FX?
Today, perhaps the most important fact is that it is a holiday in the US. This is how they reminded all their clients from the operating tables. The reason is simple: because Veterans Day is celebrated, there will be no operations or liquidations from abroad. So that Those who are distracted will have to wait until next Monday to continue the dollarization of their portfoliosincluding quota members of global common funds.
And while attention is focused on next Sunday’s debate between Sergio Massa (the Tiger) and Javier Milei (the Lion), as the operators baptized the candidates, those who know about the electoral battles do the math with the focus on the undecided, that’s the key. In every runoff, the undecided are crucial, they are approximately 7 to 8%. In the event that the rest do not change their vote, the undecided define who will be the next president given the narrow margin with which the ballots are closed.
Who are they? Political scientists say that the profile is of a voter in general very moderate, independent, who distrusts everyonedisinterested in politics, who would not even go to vote if it were not mandatory or vote blank, so it is estimated that a percentage will not go and if that were the case, the remaining percentage that would go to vote will be the target of Massa and of Milei. How to seduce them? With speeches that lower, even a little, the level of uncertainty. Tell them that there is light at the end of the tunnel, without illusory verses of a second semester or green shoots.
The libertarian’s Achilles heel is his lack of experience in public and private management, which to date has not been shown to any team, only a few scattered prestigious professionals. Will the candidates give the name of their Minister of Economy before the runoff? Analysts believe not. There is another significant fact that comes out of the focus groups and that is that there is a segment of Milei voters from the PASO who are afraid that he will win. That is why how you show yourself in the debate is key, whether you lose your composure or manage to control your temper.
That’s right, instead of talking about which asset they would sink their teeth into, everyone makes speculations electoral decisions based on surveys, polls and talks with political scientists.
What’s going to happen with the dollar?
In this regard, the people of NEIX They wondered what will happen to the official exchange rate starting next Wednesday and came to this conclusion: Massa He said that starting November 15 the official exchange rate (FX) would move again, starting with a variation of 3 pesos (0.9% daily). He did not clarify that this is the variation for the rest of the days. Going up $3 daily, considering only business days the monthly variation would be 9.4%, while if we calculate taking every day (Monday offsets the weekend) the variation would be 13.7%.
In December, the variation only taking business days would be 15%, while if it is calculated on the basis of every day, a variation of 22% is reached. We do not believe that the variation of $3 will be maintained every day but we carried out a small simulation exercise. The November future the previous week closed at $393.5. This price is 2.7% above what the FX would close, varying $3 only on business days, but 1.13% below the price that the “A” 3500 would close if holidays and weekends are considered.
Given that the differences per day in the final variation of the contract do not seem significant to us, we consider that the November contract price is fair. Let’s keep in mind that the BCRA has the possibility of selling futures. On the other hand, the December contract is trading well above the value that would be reached by increasing $3 daily (even considering non-working days). For December the story is different.
The contract of Rofex It implies a variation of 70% that month. Considering the variation of $3 for both business and total days, it would not be possible to estimate how much Rofex’s future is quoted (given that this contract also weights an opposition victory in the runoff). Although the Rofex contract is expensive given the assumptions of variation in the official exchange rate as of November 15, it does not seem reasonable to establish that it is so because after December 10 (and even after the ballot) the Conditions on the daily variation that the official FX may have can change radically.
Source: Ambito
