The increase in projected income is explained by a jump in production of 150%going from the 20 million tons produced in the 2021/22 campaign, strongly affected by the drought, to 50 million tons, according to the forecasts of the BCR, but also of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange (BCBA).
“October has become a month of definitions for Argentine crops. The long-awaited rains allowed the soil moisture profile to be recomposed in key regions, despite the fact that to the west of Buenos Aires and the central north of Córdoba it is still necessary to add more. millimeters,” said the stock exchange entity’s report.
That, combined with the largest planted area in six years, with 17.4 million hectares, “allows us to project a soybean production of 50 million tons; that is, two and a half times what was obtained in the previous cycle,” explained the entity’s work.
If the remainder that would remain from the 2022/23 campaign is added, the Total soybean supply in Argentina is estimated at 58 million tonsin line with the average of the last ten campaigns and 54% more than 2022/23.
“With this, it can be expected that the processing of the oil industry would grow to 39 million tons, an increase close to 50% compared to the previous cycle,” the entity indicated.
Taking into account this volume of production and industrialization, for the current cycle “net exports of the soybean complex are estimated at just US$8 billion, the lowest value in almost 20 years, since the 2003/04 campaign. Meanwhile , for the new 2023/24 campaign and the result of the productive recomposition, an income of dollars from net exports of soybeans and derived products is projected for US$8,000 million“,
Thus, climate through, they would earn about US$10,000 million more than the last campaign and above the average of the last 5 years, although still below the 2020/21 and 2021/22 marks.
Soybean complex: how much does it represent for Argentina
In Argentina, andl 30% of the dollars that come in from exports comes from agro complex. That is why the reactivation of the key industry for Argentine foreign trade is expected like manna from heaven,” said the work of the Rosario Stock Exchange.
In the same analysis he added that “the bulk of income from foreign sales historically occurs in the first two quarters of the campaign, which represent on average the 61% of the value of exports“, so “a normalization in external trade volumes could be expected starting in April of next year.”
Regarding the progress of the planting, in its monthly report on national agricultural estimatesthe BCR indicated that to date 8.75% more area has been implemented than in 2022/23, since “the oilseed receives 400,000 hectares of the area intended for early corn that has been left aside due to the lack of rain “.
Source: Ambito
