The key data from the United States that marked a contagion effect. The new scenario that opened on Wall Street.
The number of inflation in USA It generated surprise at the bottom and the markets reacted upwards. In addition to the secret information that we will give belowyou smell something: The end of inflation made in the USA? ¿game over of the upward path of FED rates?
Yesterday, after the number of inflationthe logic operated: US sovereign Treasury bonds rose, the rates they pay fell and this freed up investments in more volatile assets. The actions in USA They finished strong up.
Apart from the good moment that opens in Wall Streetthe emerging ones celebrate in advance. A wave of lower risk aversion is born. Therefore, emerging markets could receive investment flow. In the opinion of analysts, China could start in pole position, but Mexico and Brazil would also be supported. Late yesterday, there was a meme to forward: the bears are worried, those who sold in the future are buying back when they can and paying higher prices in NY. Santa Claus arrives.
Inflation: what can we expect from the United States?
The reading that helps to understand is the one that compares what happened in the Bovespa Brazilian against Merval. Although the US inflation data opens good prospects for emerging markets, the local market is having a hard time. For example, all regional stock markets had strong growth yesterday in dollars while the Merval in that currency it remained neutral.
From Delphos, for example, they point out an interesting fact: The ratio between the Merval and the EWZ (Brazilian stock ETF) tests the lows of 2023. If a factor must be highlighted that explains this, it is due to the logical uncertainty of the previous election.
They predict, yes, the taking hedging positions to face the weekend, which would lead to increases in the coming hours. On the other hand, another piece of information, a little gem, that helps: the local market increased its exposure to papers that are listed in Argentina but that, in turn, have an ADR in the United States. It’s over there. As Keynes said about beauty contests, there are complex choices in which, to obtain the best result, it is advisable to take into account what others will probably choose. It goes for everything.
Source: Ambito
