Market operators are already in waiting mode until they see who is elected president this Sunday: the current Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, or the libertarian Javier Milei. Whoever it was, There will be some movement on Tuesday when operations reopen.
It is noteworthy at this point, thatThe Treasury was able to copewith some expertise and a lot of help from the Central Bank, the entire electoral period without an uncontrolled run against the debt in pesos occurring again.
According to comments from operators consulted by Ámbito, everyone is waiting for the polls to open to define the next portfolio positioning. The unfreezing of the official exchange rate that began this Wednesday, the crawling peg, went unnoticed in the secondary market because, in the context of an average monthly inflation above 9%, the 3% monthly modifications that the Central Bank will implement are insufficient. What’s more, many expect the “discreet jump” for next month.
“The truth is that if it runs at 3% monthly as it says it will, it will not move that. They are between 5 and 7 points below inflation. What is going to move the ammeter is the expectation of devaluation,” said Juan Pedro Mazza of Cohen Argentina, who indicated that, in addition to this, the electoral result is key.
The consultant Salvador Distéfano, For his part, he maintained that “On Tuesday the market will open its doors with a new president, and surely the exchange and monetary policy will adapt to the electoral result”. “We will have a policy that will move towards dollarization or we will continue with a pesified economy. In any case, economic agents will begin to vote in the market, the blue dollar will no longer be able to be contained, and we will witness a new set of prices in the economy,” he explained.
In that context, in the last two wheels The debt in pesos adjustable by inflation CER came with falling prices, but this Thursday it returned to positive territory by an average of 1.5%. The BONCER TX28 rose by 6% and the Dual bond that expires in April of next year rose by over 2%.
It is to be remembered that, After the August primaries, when Milei came first, a lot of uncertainty was generated and what prevailed was the search for coverage. But after that, the libertarian turned his statements in favor of a “dollar-free” dollarization, towards a gradual process. That is why now, in the event that he wins, although the market does not have confidence, it is not in a state of panic.
Javier Timerman, partner and founder of the stock company Adcap Financial Group, He said that Sergio Massa “is questioned about what happened recently” both at an economic and institutional level, while at the same time to Javier Milei “investors question the execution capacity a lot”. “In Argentina, investors are more afraid of execution than policies”explained the financier with extensive experience and solid contacts on Wall Street.
Depending on the result, Tuesday could be a litmus test for the Secretary of Finance, Eduardo Setti, who will have to go out and renew maturities for about $1.5 trillion. The most important is a Lecer for $1.3 billion. If the chosen one were Massa, the market would be calmer with the debt in pesos, because it will continue with the current dynamics. On the other hand, if it is Milei, the result of the operation will be tied to the first signals that the libertarian offers as president-elect.
Source: Ambito
