Silenzio stampa in the bunkers. Last folders? Total uncertainty. More coverage ideas. Attached to the screens. Applause at the CICyP. Rumor on Wall Street. Lower FCI flow.
He was already far away debate presidential. Boring and empty. He only added more confusion to the general confusion. Last 48 hours of the keys 72 hours prior to the ballot, as the prestigious political scientist explains Rosendo Fraga It is the period where “things” hit the voter’s mood, especially undecided voters.
Hence, since yesterday the field bunkers have been on alert, mainly, controlling the “lazy mouths”. The people of Milei tries to avoid errors such as “the break with the Vatican” or that “the high dollar is better to dollarize or it is better that it explodes now”, while those of Massa do not want surprises such as gasoline or blue. Nobody wants to be shelved, but there is still time for new surprises. Everyone guards the weapons.
How is the market covered before the runoff?
Meanwhile in the market, confusion continues to reign and proof of this is almost the paralysis in making financial and investment decisionsand the managers and consultants only continue to issue coverage recommendations such as NEIX’s “Trade of duals”: the June 2024 dual bond (TDJ24) was issued in a context of exchange stability and therefore has accumulated more return linked to inflation than the part associated with the variation of the official dollar.
This is different from the rest of the dual bonds, which were issued prior to the devaluation post-STEP, so its evolution was associated with both the inflation as to the movement of the official dollar. The paw CER of the TDJ24 It is relatively cheap compared to the rest of the duals, but relatively expensive by measuring the official dollar. Additionally, the TDJ24 is expensive in relation to the TDG24 measuring everything in terms of the linked dollar leg. Based on the above, and the differential between the CER leg and the official dollar between TDJ24 and TDG24 We see it as an opportunity to move from the June dual to the August one (this is how we closed our trade in the first dual, opened two weeks ago). For now, the great Marcelo Gallardo chose to go after the Saudi rials, obviously converted into euros.
The tables were attentive to the latest television reports of both candidates and took note that Milei ratified dollarization already Emilio Ocampo at the BCRA and when asked about Federico Sturzenegger He didn’t deny anything. With the same duo of journalists, Massa repeated that he would lift the restrictions in a year and that he would announce his Minister of Economy on Monday or Tuesday and that it would be someone who is not part of his political force..
Curiosities: hours before the libertarian at the CICyP event had talked about lifting exchange restrictions and solving the problem of Leliq without mentioning once the closure of the BCRA (yesterday it was Massa’s turn at the CICyP, flanked by Francisco De Narváez and José de Mendiguren, and he ratified his latest statements). In short, nothing new in both cases and the table operators look askance at those appearances where the accommodating establishment on duty sits waiting for some new clue.
At the tables they summarize the situation in which a Milei that promises reforms but has no political structure to carry them out and a Massa that has guaranteed governability but does not guarantee the reforms. Knowing that the electoral process snubbed the markets that expected the victory of Together for Change, which promised pro-market reforms and had structure, today the scenario is better than it seemed in the previous election since Milei has the support of the PRO and became less “radical” in American terms, while Massa added an opening speech. In any case, doubts remain about the programs of both candidates, so the market will be very attentive not only to the result but also to the speeches and announcements after the runoff.
When it comes to counterpoint with foreign peers, local operators and managers perceive that no one looks with interest at the Argentina and therefore to the local assets, there will always be those interested in putting in some token but only to “trade” nothing in the medium or long term, in and out. In addition, from meetings held in Wall Street several Argentine managers and investors turned to the rumor that the Background, Before sitting down to talk to the winner of the runoff, he will ask for a restructuring. We will expand.
According to the latest surveys among the actions of the local common investment funds (FCI) they showed that in recent days, although the flow towards the dollar-linked FCI continued in the run-up to the ballot, a decrease in the amounts is observed with respect to the prior to the PASO and the first round: in the week before the PASO, net subscriptions to FCI dollar linked totaled more than $115,000 million and in the week before the General Elections almost $380,000 million, now the flow is much more limited.
Source: Ambito
