These are the official deficit numbers for October, which would total about $3 billion in the first 10 months. On the other hand, the Government carries out the first debt tender after the runoff.
While The Government defines how it will carry out the transition with the elected president Javier Milei, this Tuesday a couple of key data will be known that interest the new management, based on which they will outline the scenario with which it will start on December 10. On the one hand, the Treasury Palace will inform the state of the Public Sector accounts National corresponding to October and, on the other, will go out to place debt in pesos.
In accordance with private estimatesin the tenth month of the year, when the first electoral round was held, the national government would have had a deficit of around $350,000 millionwith which up to that moment it would have accumulated a loss ofl 1.6% of GDP. lThe consulting firm LCG points out that the AFIP collection destined for the Nation had an annual increase of 125% that month, which still reflects a decline in real terms of 7% annually.
“As far as spending is concerned, in October the cost of the comprehensive package of measures that the Government launched after the PASO in the attempt to reverse the electoral result,” the private report states. It is thought that in that month the government would have increased the floating debt to prevent a growth in executed spending. Thus, for LCG both spending and income would have fallen by a real 10%. If this estimate is met in the first 10 months, the accumulated deficit would reach $3 billion. According to estimates among the Milei teams, the next administration would start with a loss of 3 points of GDP. To that we must add a floating debt that as of September reached $1.88 trillion, almost all of it contracted during this year and that will surely pass to the next administration.
The total fiscal deficit and debt resulting from accrued expenses not yet paid by the Treasury is equivalent to almost all the net financing obtained in the first 10 months of the year. According to official data from the Ministry of Economy, this year the government managed to get the market to lend it some $5 billion above the maturities that were paid throughout the period. This is another key detail for the transition.
Milei already stated in his first post-ballot statements that his government “He will honor all his debts”a message that brings a little more peace of mind before the first tender of Treasury bills after the elections and with the result already in place. This Tuesday the Treasury has to go out and look for at least $1.3 trillion from the expiration of a Lecer. The Ministry of Economy had a wide range of bonds for the case. It is expected that those tied to the dollar or duals will have a greater role.
The stock company Cohen Argentina points out that “the first statements after the triumph were healthy, but they do not clear up doubts.””. Javier Milei emphasized his intention to face an exit without “gradualisms” to clean up the public accounts and BCRA reserves. For Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI), the outlook for debt in pesos is positive in the case of CER bonds and very positive for Duales and Linked Dollars.
Source: Ambito
