The future dollar rose strongly yesterday in the Matba-Rofex due to the increase in expectations of a strong adjustment in the exchange rate by the end of the year and during 2024. This happens after the results of the ballot that consecrated Javier Milei as the next president .
The currency prices in this market had spiraled before the general elections to which Milei arrived as a favorite with the proposal to implement a dollarization of the economy. Then, in the week before the runoff, the future dollar marked a moderation of those expectations because the market bet that Sergio Massa could emerge victorious in the electoral contest. However, once again these expectations are on the rise as Milei is declared the winner.
In this context, the dollar at the end of November was the only one that fell (it lost $2 to $368), which shows that the market does not foresee a devaluation of the exchange rate during the current administration.
By the end of December, however, the currency jumped from $123 (18.4%) to $790 (it far exceeded $800 during the round). Meanwhile, for January 2024, the exchange rate rose by $154.90 (20.1%) to $925.
For February, the dollar advanced $190 (29.9%) to $1,020, while for March contracts it climbed $208 (23.4%) to $1,140. The most important increase was recorded in the August contract, which shot up $374 (31.7%) to $1,569.
BCRA maintains crawling
Yesterday, on the first day of banking and financial activity after the runoff and within the framework of the presidential transition, the Central Bank maintained the policy of daily micro adjustments for the official dollar (crawling peg).
The monetary regulator ordered a slight increase in the pace, with an increase of $2 to $355.95. The transition to the new government has already begun and Milei began to outline what his management will be, with some definitions about his first movements in economic matters, with several names confirmed for his future cabinet. The president-elect met with Alberto Fernández at Quinta de Olivos yesterday. The meeting lasted two and a half hours.
Likewise, in order to maintain the pace of reserve accumulation and contain financial dollars, the Government made official the extension of the export increase program until December 10 and established new conditions. As Ámbito anticipated, Decree 597/2023 increases to 50% the portion of foreign currency that can be settled in the Cash Settlement segment. The new implicit exchange rate is almost $620, although it will depend on the variation in quotes.
Source: Ambito
