In recent months, the demand for hedging accelerated due to the projection of a large part of investors that, once the elections were over, the Central would quickly abandon the exchange rate anchor with which it tried during the year to reduce inflation pressure. This scenario had been ruled out by different government officials on several occasions. This dynamic increased open interest in both the Rofex and the MAE, the two places where future dollar contracts are traded, and also led the BCRA to intervene strongly.
For the moment, these arm wrestling with the market meant a great profit to the entity chaired by Miguel Pesce. The $ 19,000 million obtained this year were added to the $ 23,500 million earned in 2020 in the same way, particularly at the peak of the run, when many operators predicted a devaluation that did not materialize either. It happens that, through exchange control and interventions in the wholesale market, it is the monetary authority itself that manages the path of slippage of the official dollar.
However, the market puts the magnifying glass on the amount of international reserves and the open negotiation with the International Monetary Fund, and continues to bet on a sharp acceleration in the rate of depreciation. Although there was a drop in the rates implicit in the futures contracts after the elections, they continue to be above the inflation projected for the next few months.
But the Government not only rules out a devaluation jump, which would generate an immediate impact on an already very high inflation and an obstacle to the recovery of economic activity. As this newspaper recounted, officials also dismiss bringing the rate of depreciation above the evolution of the consumer price index (CPI) next year. The premise is not to add more fuel to the cost of living.
The BCRA does evaluate the opportune moment for, over the next few months, to begin to move the current rate of slippage little by little, something that the 2022 Budget project already suggested. . Sources from the economic cabinet assure that the path proposed by the Government for the official dollar for the multi-year program is not a point of tension with the IMF, which would also accept a continuity of the stocks with an eye on the recovery of reserves. Yes there are discussions around the gap.
This year, the Central applied a strategy known as the exchange rate anchor to try to help moderate inflation. This implied sliding the official exchange rate about 2 points below the monthly CPI. From May to October, the wholesale dollar advanced between 1% and 1.2% monthly. November was no exception: it rose 1.2% and ended at $ 100.93. To do this, in times of unfavorable seasonality and electoral tensions, he had to sell $ 890 million.
Officials predict a somewhat calmer December. They expect that, with the beginning of the fine harvest, some US $ 3.5 billion will come in and that disbursements from multilateral banks will continue. This month the Government will pay US $ 1,880 million to the IMF for the second capital maturity of the multimillion dollar loan that Mauricio Macri took.
Source From: Ambito
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