In October inflation slowed down and was located in 8.3%. However, the private sector already estimates overheating for the remaining two months of the year, amid the pressure exerted by Dollars alternatives and the uncertainty generated by the change of government.
In this context, there are already 16 days until the end of the current Administration, the Secretariat of Internal Trade continues with efforts to contain the rise in prices in the food sector, mainly those linked to the basic basket.
As was revealed last week, after the result of the runoff which resulted in the absolute winner of Javier Milei, supermarkets received new lists with increases close to 50% in some products manufactured by multinational companies, well above what was agreed in the official program.
From the sector they maintain that some agreed to review these values, but they clarify that others made their refusal clear and therefore they stopped delivering merchandise.
Official sources confirmed to this medium that efforts continue with reference to the sector during the next few days in which staggered price accommodations are being proposed, that is, which would be between 5% and 12% for the current month and 8% for December.
The Government assures that several companies decided to accompany this mechanism and go back with increases that exceed 40%.
This was confirmed in a statement from the Association of United Supermarkets (ASU) which confirms that “dialogue with the value chain is being prioritized to channel situations that allow, above all, to guarantee supply and adapt the current path with the aim of avoiding excessive increases.”
Likewise, it is confirmed that “during December the traditional monthly increase of the program in the order of 8% will operate”, as mentioned previously.
Stock problems
Another factor that arises and is related to the position of the main suppliers is the choice to retain products, especially those associated with primary production, in anticipation of the assumption of Milei. They anticipate that his rise to power pcould result in a devaluation of the pesoan increase in the value of the dollar and more favorable conditions for exports.
An emblematic case is that of oil, which exemplifies the list sent by supermarkets: suppliers only deliver half of the requested ordersand the conditions of sale are, at best, cash payment or the requirement of an advance.
This situation would naturally trigger a shortage of products in the shelves in the coming weeks due to lack of stock in the hands of the retailer, derived from the scarce supply by the suppliers.
Inflation: what’s coming
He INDEC will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November next Wednesday December 13three days after the inauguration of the new president, Javier Milei.
In that sense, private consultants estimate that the average monthly inflation for the last four months of 2023 will be between 11% and 11.5%projecting a year with an increase in prices that will range between 175% and 180%
Source: Ambito
