To date, net financing of $6.2 billion has been accumulated, with a renewal rate of 157%. Between December and April $20 billion expires (75% in the hands of public entities).
When he takes office on December 10, the president-elect Javier Milei will have to get to work immediately to resolve multiple economic fronts, including the debt in pesos of the National Treasury with the market. Between next December and April there are maturities of almost $21 billion, which at dollar value Cash with Settlement (CCL) are approximately US$18,000 million.
Even though the Ministry of Finance, headed by Eduardo Setti, managed to pass the “maturity wall” in 2023 of debt that had been concentrated until August, before the electoral period, due to market distrust, there were also important maturities for the first quarter of 2024 that should be addressed through voluntary exchanges, as has been done until now.
The last tender of the current administration was very good. The Treasury awarded almost $1 billion this Tuesday and obtained net financing of $913,339 millions. In this way, he concludes his mandate with an accumulated net in 2023 of $6.2 billion, equivalent to a renewal rate of 157%. On this occasion, five titles were placed, all maturing between 2024 and 2025. Four adjustable by CER: T4X4, T5X4, T2X5 and T4X5, maturing in October and December 2024; and February and May 2025. In addition, a bond linked to the US dollar (TV25) was offered as of March 2025.
This year the main obstacle was the entire electoral period. The market did not want to lend money to the Treasury beyond August, which had generated a concentration of maturities that jeopardized renewal. To make matters worse, the first semester was markedly influenced by the latent threat of a reprofile if Together for Change won the election. None of this happened and by dint of exchanges, with the collaboration of the banks and the participation of the Central Bank in the secondary markets by purchasing bonds, Setti was able to overcome the wall and roll maturities to 2024 and 2025.
However, a new wall appears in the first months of Milei’s administration. The president-elect has said that all commitments made will be respected. According to data from the Congressional Budget Office (CPO), In December, interest on securities for $219,000 million matures. In January, $1.02 billion appears and in February the figure jumps to $6 billion. In March, there are maturities in pesos for $4.6 billion and in April another $9 billion. The figures are too important to be addressed with the two calls for bids that were being made per month. If no innovative alternative appears, Luis “Toto” Caputo will have to appeal to his experience in the market to exchange these securities and extend the maturity horizon by a couple of years.
Not only that. In addition, Caputo is thinking about transferring all or part of the $23 billion of Leliq and Passes from the Central Bank to the Treasury, with the idea of cleaning up the entity’s balance sheet and cutting off the indirect emission generated by remunerated liabilities.
One point in favor of the Treasury’s debt in pesos, something that private consultants highlight, is that 75% is in the power of State agencies.. The BCRA accumulates about $19.5 billion in its portfolio, which represents 26.5% of the entity’s assets. Thus, a large part of the debt roll would be insured. Until now the mechanics have been that the market renews confidence in the Treasury, but entities, especially banks, get rid of the bonds in the secondary market.
Source: Ambito
