The CCI rose 5.3% compared to October while in interannual terms the increase was 35.17%.
The Finance Research Center of the Business School of the Torcuato Di Tella University presented the results of the Index of Consumer Confidence which revealed that in the month of November the CCI rose 5.3% compared to October, in interannual terms the increase was 35.17%.
Sebastian Auguste, Director of the UTDT Finance Research Center, explained that: “In November the CCI rises 5.3% compared to October. The field work was carried out between October 31 and November 8.”
In addition, Auguste pointed out that: “Since April 2023, the Consumer Confidence index shows a clear positive trend, with a cumulative increase in the CCI, in these 7 months, of 28.1%, and with only one month of fall (September, with a monthly variation of -1.5%). In the accumulated of 2023, the ICC shows a positive increase of 32.3% (variation of November 2023 compared to December 2022), with 8 months of rise and 3 of falls (February, April and September).”
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The level the index reached in November 2023 (47.5) It is the highest since November 2017 (51.1). Between December 2019 and December 2022, the index fluctuated between a maximum of 43 (January 2020) and a minimum of 34.6 (June 2021), with a declining long-term trend. In the last 10 years, there have been 2 episodes similar to the one currently observed, in terms of acceleration of expectations, which were observed between August 2014 and November 2015, and between March 2019 and October 2019. The cumulative increase “The CCI in the current cycle is already 32.3%, while that observed in 2019 was 25.8%, and that of 2014/2015 was 37.5%.”
Consumer confidence: improvement in the outlook for the macroeconomic situation
“Of the 3 subindices that make up the general index of Consumer Confidence, the one that most explains the current improvement is the Macroeconomic situation, which rose 12.3% in November compared to March, and has accumulated an increase of 52.7% in the last year. The Personal Situation subindex has a much more modest year-on-year increase, of 25.5%, and that of Durable Goods and Real Estate of 21.1%.”
“Another way to analyze the index is to add its components by the temporal horizon, If the expectation is regarding what is happening now or what is expected in 12 months. According to this analysis, Present Conditions only increased by 19.3% in one year, while Future Expectations 45.2%.”
Another interesting aspect of current cycle of positive expectations is that it is generalized by regions and income level. For example, the year-on-year increase as of November is 35% for AMBA and 36% for the rest of the country, while by income it is 36.4% for those with the highest incomes and 32.8% for those with the lowest incomes, they concluded.
Source: Ambito
