After the rebound on Friday, the average exchange gap hit weekly lows of 138% and closed the week at 158%, 12 percentage points below the previous weekly close.
The parallel dollars They went through a week of relative calm, after the volatility experienced in the last rounds prior to the runoff. After the rebound on Friday, the average exchange gap touched weekly minimums of the 138% and closed the week at 158%12 percentage points below the previous weekly close.
Among the causes that explain this relative stability, the liquidation of approximately US$150 million stands out daily due to changes in the Export Increase Program after the ballot, which improved the price in pesos and stimulated sales. Likewise, there is a realignment of investors’ expectations of devaluation, which was reflected in the equity markets. future dollargiven the unofficial rumors and then the confirmation of Luis Caputo as Minister of Economy of the future administration, which he distanced the idea of dollarization in the short term. Moving forward, analysts consulted by Ambit They expect an upward adjustment in prices due to the acceleration of inflation already waiting for concrete measures of the next Government.
Throughout the week, the CCL dollar had a drop from $105 to $820. On Friday, he experienced a major rebound to $904. In this way, weekly accumulated a cut of 2.27%. The same trend had the MEP dollaraccumulating a drop from $134 to $838 throughout the weekwith a rebound of $69 up to $907 in Friday’s round. Finally, the blue dollar had a $90 cut to $905 in the week, and on Friday bounced $50 to close at $955.
Thus, according to Ecolatina “The MEP and the blue dollar showed weekly cuts of around 4% and 5%the CCL via Cedear showed a reduction of 2%, and the CCL via GD30 a drop of 7.5%. As a result, the average gap touched minimums of 138% to close the week in 158%more than 12 pp below the previous weekly close (170%).”
Martín Kalos, director at EPyCA Consultores, highlighted that “on the one hand, they continue to realign themselves with respect to dollarization expectations, which increasingly seems clear that it is not going to happen in the short term. In this way, the coverage against this measure was falling, given that the same implied a higher exchange rateboth for the parallels and for the official, and a inflationary acceleration with risk of spiralization. Likewise, the other important factor is the settlement of US$150 million average per day by exporters in the CCL, which had an impact on all parallel dollars.”
For its part, Gastón Valles, Trader Quaestus Advisory, noted that it was a week full of rumors. “The first half of the week with the dollar falling to close with a rebound between Thursday and Friday. In principle with the “dollar blend”, which allowed exporters settle half to the official dollar and half to CCL dollaradded to the possibility of subscribe Lediv which were dollar linked +0%, led to a very strong liquidation of financial dollars. Then in the middle of the week, The BCRA reversed itself with the subscription of these letters and from there the rebound began that ended with a rise approximately 10% from the minimum. To this we can also add the rumor that the dollar could converge to the $650 zone both official and financial, something that the market quickly ruled out. Finally – he analyzed – we can add that these are weeks where many speculations begin to arise with the measures that the new president-elect may take in economic matters.”
Moving forward, for analysts Parallel dollars are going to rearrange upwards pending the implementation of new measures from the future administration. Along these lines, the economist Gustavo Ber pointed out that “before lower liquidations and the sudden end of the Lediv, financial dollars began an attempt to rearrange themselves on Thursday after deflating strongly in recent times. This, added to the expectation of an acceleration in inflation in the short term – based on the honesty of relative prices – could once again activate a greater search for coverage beyond the climate of greater trust between operators.
Source: Ambito
