The Matba Rofex futures market registered increases throughout the curve except for the shortest contract, this month’s which, however, despite this fall, was above the “reasonable” dollar predicted by Guillermo Francos.
Futures market does not believe in the “reasonable” dollar and bets on a higher exchange rate by the end of the year
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Following the statements of the future Minister of the Interior, Guillermo Francoswho assured that a “reasonable” dollar would be located between $600 and $650the thing is the Matba Rofex futures market discount other values. Thus the contract for this month, although it fell, It stood at $739well above the projection of the new official. What other factors could have influenced these quotes?
It should be noted that Guillermo Francos, future Minister of the Interior of President-elect Javier Milei, referred to the value that the dollar should have when it is released. In that sense, he maintained that the currency would have a “reasonable” price among $600 and the $650. This is a similar level to the exporting dollar, which is an average between the wholesale dollar and the CCL dollar.
Thus, this day andThe shortest contract fell 0.3% to $739, while from 2024 increases were recorded throughout the entire curve. January rose 1.5% to $840, February advanced 1.7% to $919.5, March rose 2.3% to $1,000. While April was at $1,063, May at $1,175, and June at $1,235.
This day, the stock company Bull Market Brokersowned by Ramiro Marra, prepared an analysis of the “Caputo plan” in which details of the dollars that Javier Milei could access in the first months of the Government and points out what is going to happen with the exchange gap.
In principle, it is analyzed that the market foresees two jumps in the official exchange rate: one in December and another in February. “Mercado begins to work with a jump to $640/650 ($25 pesos above the 50/50 Export Dollar between A3500 and Cable). Second exchange rate jump in February? It would be a definitive leap of convergence“.
But the most relevant thing that the private analysis points out comes from the financing that, they maintain, the new Minister of Economy could obtain. In total, at most, they maintain that Caputo could raise US$23 billion hence “it would be close to achieving Dollarization at the market exchange rate ($1,000).”
Source: Ambito
