With great caution it is that some consultants revealed inflation projections for the first two months Management Javier Milei. Thus, “with tweezers” is how it is projected a strong acceleration of around 40% for December and January. What happens is that some events can already be foreseen as the fall of price agreements, the delayed exchange rate, the rise in public service rates and, other events that have not yet been decided.
consulted by Ambit, Rocio Bisangeconomist Eco Goassured that for December They are working with an inflation projection of 26.4% (this is a preliminary estimate) and for January of the 17.5%. “As for what it depends on, there are several things. First of all, the increases that we registered after the runoff with the fall of price agreementsthey already leave a fairly important drag for December,” he specified.
And he expanded: “Secondly, the official exchange rate was significantly behind and we hope to see a correction in that sense that could have a correlation in prices (it may be higher or lower depending on the government’s ability to set expectations). Finally, it remains to be seen what happens with fare prices that, if a strong fiscal adjustment is considered, it will be necessary to correct them eventually.
In offfrom another consulting firm they told Ambit what they foresee 18% increase for December and another 18% advance for JanuaryIn this regard, they specified that that floor has two axes: first takes into account a scenario of devaluation jumpAnd in second place a correction of late prices (rates, fuel, telecommunications, etc.).
For its part, Ramiro Castiñera of Econometric In a conversation with this medium he said that they project a 18% increase in December and 19% in January. To its turn, Camilo Tiscornia of C&T Asesores Clarified that will not give projections yet but he announced that “so far this week there was a very strong jump in many prices“.
About Castiñera He reflected: “The outgoing government destroyed the price system of the economy. An exchange rate gap of 150%, even greater than what currently exists on the island of Cuba, says it all. About this, He stepped on the price of public services, gasoline, prepaid, schools, and every market where the power of the State reaches. The new government will try to return to a market economy, freeing the prices of the economy. essential if Argentina wants to grow again.”
How inflationary expectations influence
Gonzalo Semillachief economist of the CREEBBAin a conversation with this medium, warned that “making an inflation estimate for December, which has just begun, and January, may perhaps generate false expectations or bad expectations. It is heard in the media that he could be at 20% this month and something similar next month, between 15% and 20%“.
In this regard, he said that what can be concluded is that there is a lot price rearrangement: “In my opinion there are also lots of price updates above what corresponds, both in goods, merchandise, but We must consider that Care Prices may no longer be available, which is why they are rearranging“.
He also mentioned as another point to analyze, prices of services. “You have to see how much they would increase, for example the fuel, public services such as gas, electricity and waterthe fees of the private schoolsas well as medicines and prepaid bills, transportation and tolls“, he added and among foods he said that it will be important to follow the evolution of the price of the meat.
“If the rental lawthere may be some very strong updates“, he responded and finally named the official exchange rate: “The future dollar stands at $750 at the end of the month, which implies a 100% increase. It should be noted that in August the pass through copied the price increase, if that happens and there is a 100% exchange rate variation, we have to see what will happen to the prices.”
Government plan and execution order
Santiago Manoukianeconomist and head of Research at Ecolatinahe said that for December are waiting an acceleration and that in himthe next few months there will be a need to correct relative prices like the rates of public services, fuels, prepaid and telecommunications: “It will depend on the sequence in which it is carried out and thus be able to gauge the inflationary impact a little. But, especially in the first part of 2024, we expect a strong acceleration of inflation that, if there is a successful stabilization program, it could be moderated.
“The second part of 2024 it will depend a bit of anchoring expectations that generates the program. There are some concerns; if there really is a stabilization program, we must ask ourselves if there will be price and wage agreements or if it is going to be used a nominal anchor. “Issues that have occurred in other stabilization plans that were initially successful in quickly lowering inflation,” he added. Manoukian.
And he closed: “This month it will be important to see the exchange rate scheme is adopted and that will influence the December number. We are already waiting for it the same or worse than in November where they are beginning to play a very important role of the different price thaws. It has already influenced fuel adjustments, in medicines, in food and the export dollar that became 50/50 instead of the previous 70/30.”
Source: Ambito
