Image: KARIM SAHIB (AFP)
With these profit forecasts raised again, the pre-crisis level of 2019 (26.4 billion dollars) would almost be reached.
According to figures presented in Geneva on Wednesday, air traffic in 2023 has already exceeded the volume of 2019 by more than 2 percent. The absolute number of global passengers is likely to narrowly miss the 2019 benchmark of 4.54 billion this year, but will exceed it by 9 percent next year, as IATA economist Andrew Matters showed. That would be a record with around 4.7 billion passengers.
After the losses of previous years, the expected profits are a contribution to strengthening the resilience of aviation, said IATA boss Willie Walsh, according to a statement. Despite the exceptionally quick recovery, the pandemic cost the industry four years of growth. However, the net margin of 2.75 percent is still well below what investors in almost every other industry would accept. On average, an airline only earns $5.45 per passenger. “That’s just enough to buy a basic Grand Latte at Starbucks London,” said Walsh.
For the coming year, the association expects sales (7.6 percent to $964 billion) to rise slightly faster than costs (6.9 percent). Above all, the high interest rates are likely to once again reduce the increasing operating profits. With a share of 31 percent, kerosene remains the largest cost item. Only a good half of a percent of the required amount of 99 billion US gallons (375 billion liters) is available as sustainably produced fuel (SAF). SAF production will have doubled in 2023 compared to the previous year and will triple in 2024.
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