The current administration consumed 83% of the budget credits authorized by Congress. In November accrued spending rose 171%.
President Alberto Fernández will leave his successor, Javier Milei, an expense equivalent to about $6.4 billion to execute. The thing is that, according to official data, out of a total current budget credit of $38.2 billion, the Government has executed $31.7 billion so far. It is equivalent to 83% of the budget authorized this year by Congress.
The data corresponds to monitoring carried out by the Scalabrini Ortiz Center for Economic and Political Studies (CESO). The report indicates that the expense of the National Public Administration (APN) grew 171% in November, above inflation estimated at 160%. During the month of the runoff, the Government had a greater execution of expenses in real terms than during the same month last year.
This is accrued expense. The measurement of cash-based spending, which is what is of interest for the fiscal goals with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will be known on Wednesday the 20th of this month, now with the new economic team in place. It is clear that This year the primary fiscal deficit will exceed the 1.9% agreed with the organization. It is expected to reach between 2.7% and 3% of GDP.
The CESO report specifies that in the eleventh month of the year, the expenditure of the National Public Administration amounted to $4.1 billion, while in the same period last year it had reached $1.5 billion. Beyond the inflationary effect, the numbers indicate that for the last quarter of the year the Government abandoned the fiscal discipline it had had since July of last year, when Sergio Massa took charge of the Ministry of Economy.
The expenditures that had the greatest impact were Social Services, with an increase of $149% ($2.5 billion); Economic Services, with 153% ($563,964 million); and Defense and Security Services, with 141% ($173,412 million).
The expenses that have shown unusual growth, well above inflation, were: Public Debt, with an increase of 520%, up to $549,768 million; and the Government Administration, with 230%, up to $286,428 million.
Among the expenses that decreased were energy subsidies. They fell 1% in nominal terms, against an inflation that exceeds 160%. Last month it was $125,376 million.
In relation to the level of budget execution as of November, The Executive Branch has 17% of the authorized credits left to spend for 2023. They are equivalent to about $6.4 trillion, which is related to personnel expenses in a month where the bonuses of public sector employees and retirees are paid.
The signal that the markets will be waiting for is in January. The first month of the year is seasonally low in expenditure, and therefore usually has a fiscal surplus or a low level of deficit. The next government will then have a chance to show a first favorable data that will serve to shore up the credibility of the operators.
Source: Ambito
