Credit card operations were 8.9% nominal compared to the end of last month, and below the values of the inflation expected for this period. In October, the use of plastic had increased by 20% due to the taxes imposed by the Central bank, lower than those set by the market and the “Now 12” program.
According to First Capital Group, The growth of operations reached 144%, remaining below the estimated inflation levels for the year, consequently showing a decrease in real terms. This November, the Now 12 program and similar programs did not help and the financed balances fell.
As for the use of cards abroad registered a year-on-year increase of 76.3%, although with an irregular monthly behavior alternating increases and decreases. In November there was an increase of 38.9% compared to the previous month. The balance as of 11-30-23 amounts to US$425 million. “The distortions that are created in the exchange rate applicable to the card operations, They boosted purchases just when dollars are most needed for the productive sector and the health sector in the domestic market. The expectation of a exchange rate correctionalso collaborated in accelerating consumption, paradoxes that exaggerated regulations create.”
Loans: how was the behavior of each line
The loans in pesos to the private sector reached a level of $15.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of $9 billion, equivalent to 133.6% annually, values that are below the inflation of the period, if we consider the last twelve months and taking into account that the indices corresponding to the month analyzed have not yet been released; According to the forecasts of private economic studies that follow the evolution of prices, the CPI during the aforementioned period grew by approximately 155%.
During the last month, the variation has been $1,031 billion, which represents a 7% increase, in nominal values, while it will also be below the projected price increase. “Resolved the electoral mystery, We are far from dissipating the uncertainty about the future of the economy, until we see the new Government and fundamentally its Economic Team in operation, we will not have conditions for a financial activity tied by excess regulations to be put into operation,” he stated. Guillermo Barbero, Partner at First Capital Group.
The line of personal loans increased in nominal terms by 4.9% monthly, the balance amounted to $1,897,919 million for the accumulated total, presenting an interannual growth of 83.4%, compared to $1,035,064 million at the end of the same month of the previous year. “Another month with a mediocre nominal increase, to the point that It would not even reach half of the inflation estimated for November. The rise in rates, but above all the restrictions on granting periods, mean that in real terms there are more cancellations of installments than new amounts granted, consequently contracting the final balance of the portfolio. Uncertainty about the level of income that families will have in the near future is a determining factor for borrowers when requesting a loan. new financing“Barbero explained.
As for the mortgage credit lines, including those adjusted for inflation/UVA, during November they had an increase of 8.1% with respect to the stock of $543,790 million of the previous month, accumulating a total balance at the closing of $587,939 million and an interannual increase of 60.3% all in nominal terms.
The collateral credit line presents a portfolio balance at the end of November 2023 of $918,860 million, growing 103.1% versus the portfolio at the end of the same month of 2022 of $452,494 million, once again below inflation. The variation with respect to the balance of the previous month marked an increase of 7.2%, accumulating more than two years of consecutive monthly nominal increases and a monthly variation that is estimated to be lower than inflation.
In relation to the business loans, this line saw its balance increase by 6.4% in the month, clearly below inflation, placing it with a portfolio stock of $6,208,185 million. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the increase is 159.1%, the only line that manages to exceed to some extent the CPI values expected for this period.
As for the dollar loansCompared to last month, the total amount has presented a positive variation of 0.6%. Regarding the interannual variation, it showed an increase of 5.5%. The stock of loans in dollars is US$3,777 million. 62% of the total debt in foreign currency continues to be the line of business loans, which rose 2% in the year, but fell 3.1% compared to the previous month.
Source: Ambito
