Analysts predicted inflation over 8% by the end of 2021

According to the results of 2021, inflation will exceed 8%, and in the next year it is unlikely to drop to the target of 4%, according to analysts interviewed by Izvestia. In their opinion, a slowdown in price growth will begin in the near future under the influence of an increase in the key rate and debt burden of the population, as well as the end of the pre-New Year demand phase.

Tourism services became the next main driver of inflation instead of the rise in prices for fruits and vegetables, and experts named a new strain of coronavirus as the main factor of uncertainty.

Economists from the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow State University, HSE, TsSR and ACRA took part in the Izvestia survey. All of them expect inflation to be at least 8% in 2021. The majority also called it unlikely that price growth will halve, that is, to the target of 4%, at the end of 2022. The CSR and Moscow State University believe that inflation next year will be in the range of 5-6%. At the same time, the dynamics of prices in 2022 will largely be determined by the threat of a new strain of coronavirus, analysts agree.

Now the Russian economy is near the peak of inflation, its slowdown will begin in the near future – late this – early next year, experts predict. In addition to increasing the key rate, the government can restrain inflation by regulating prices for certain products, export duties, quotas, as well as easing the budget rule, they believe. According to experts, the ruble exchange rate will also be an important factor affecting price dynamics in 2022, since the Russian economy is largely dependent on imports. Considering the rather tough monetary and budgetary policy, achieving the goal of GDP growth at the level of 3% next year seems unrealistic, experts say.

More details – in the exclusive material of Izvestia:

“Point and meaning: according to the results of the year of inflation, an increase of over 8% was prescribed”