Let us remember that for October 2021 the median of the estimates of those who participated in the REM survey it suggested a monthly inflation of 3.2%, while the data observed in said month turned out to be 3.5%.
For their part, they projected that retail inflation for 2021 will be 51.1% yoy, that is, 0.8 percentage points (pp) higher than the previous survey. Those who best predicted this variable for the short term (TOP-10) expect an average inflation of 51.2% yoy (0.2 pp higher than the previous survey).
Likewise, REM participants they raised the inflation forecast for 2022 by 3.2 points to 52.1% yoy
PBI
Regarding economic activity, those who participate in the REM expect a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2021 of 9.7%, 1.4 pp more compared to the previous survey, after registering a 9.9% yoy fall in 2020
The TOP-10 of those who best predicted economic growth suggests an average GDP increase for 2021 of 9.8% (+1.2 pp compared to the previous survey). Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of GDP, the estimate for the third quarter of the year was corrected upwards with an estimated rise of 4.2%, which was 1.6 pp higher than in the previous survey.
The growth estimate corresponding to In the fourth quarter of the year, it rose 0.9 pp to 1.5%. Meanwhile, REM participants, reduced growth for the first quarter of next year by 0.3 pp to 0.1%
Dollar
In exchange, the “gurus” foresee that the wholesale dollar will reach $ 103.7 by the end of the year.
Those who more accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons project that the average nominal exchange rate for the end of December 2021 will reach $ 103.2.
Analysts lowered their monthly projections for the nominal exchange rate, expecting it to stand at $ 161 by the end of 2022.
Badlar rate
For December 2021, those who participate in REM predicted a BADLAR rate of private banks monthly average of 34.50%, somewhat higher than that registered in the month of November (34.18%).
There is evidence of a growing trend in the monthly forecasts until the end of next year, with the rate rising to 36.45%. Meanwhile, those who best forecasted the interest rate for the short term expect, on average, that it will be at 34.37% by the end of 2021.
Source From: Ambito
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