The price increase in November was 12.8%, marking a strong acceleration compared to the 8.3% registered in October.
November inflation rose sharply to 12.8% compared to the 8.3% registered in October, and accumulated a variation of 148.2%. In the year-on-year comparison, the increase reached 160.9%. The two items that advanced the most last month were Health (+15.9%)as a result of increases in medications and prepaid fees and food and non-alcoholic beverages (+15.7%)reported the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of the Argentine Republic (INDEC).
The other divisions that ranked above the overall price increase were Communication (+15.2%), and Recreation and Culture (+13.2%). At the category level, the Core CPI (+13.4%) led the increase followed by Seasonal (+12.8%)while Regulated registered an increase of 10.1%.
In dialogue with Ambit, Lorenzo Sigaut Gravinadirector of Ecolatinaanalyzed: “We were expecting close to 12%, 12.8% is a record for the year since it exceeded the 12.7% of September and in fact it is record since February 1991 when it rose more than 20%“.
For the economist, “it not only corroborates that October’s single-digit data had been a swallow that it is not summer, but The worst is what is coming now in December“. As for what follows, he said that “to this is added the fact that prices began to rise due to the fall of the agreements, the regulated prices began to drop after the triumph of Javier Milei and now they are added the known exchange rate measures, so we are going to have inflation that will rise to 25% in December and end up above 200% in 2023“.
Regarding the breakdown, Sigaut Gravina highlighted that food and beverages rose to almost 16%. “It is all negative data because this obviously impacts a lot on households with lower purchasing power,” she explained. “We see meat accelerating the rise like most foods. It is a very complex situation for the end of the year and with yesterday’s announcements it’s obviously going to be a little worse. So it’s a very complex picture of inflation,” he concluded.
For its part, Walter Moralespresident and strategist of Wise Capitalanalyzed: “The devaluation, the tax increase (2% of GDP) and the elimination of subsidies are going to bring more inflation, which in the first quarter of the year it could be 92%. It is inevitable due to the distortion of relative prices. “This inflation is going to help liquefy public spending and the BCRA debt.”
From the consultancy Eco Goindicated that in their Retail Price Survey During the first week of December, The weekly variation in food was 8.2% and would reach 28% in the month (a projection that did not yet take into account the economic measures that indicated a 118% rise in the exchange rate). So, They highlighted that the general level for December could rise to 23%.
Inflation accumulated in the government of Alberto Fernández and what is coming
image.png
From Romano Group revealed to Area that Alberto Fernández’s management culminated with 931% and that “this is consistent with an annualized quarterly inflation of 260%. “We estimate to close 2023 with an interannual inflation exceeding 200%,” they added.
They also assured that “with the expected correction of relative prices, both in terms of rates, fuels and also the dollar, we expect rising inflation by 2024. In our base scenario “We project inflation of 353% for next year.”.
For his part, the economist Nery Persichini He also expressed: “The accumulated inflation between November 2019 and November 2023 was 931%. That is, prices multiplied 10.3 times. Since the CPI is a basket, There were divisions that became more expensive than the average and accompanied the CCL dollar. Regulated and official dollar, prices that the new Government is correcting, were the furthest behind.”
Source: Ambito
