He real estate goes through a strong crisis since 2018 which led the price of square meter (m2) at historic lows. To this are added the structural reforms of the economy what the government intends to do Javier Mileiwhich began with a devaluation of 54% of the peso. In this context, and in the face of the crisis, are there opportunities?
Property prices hit a “floor”: what does it mean?
Specifically, the price of m2 It is at historic lows, because the demand for properties is minimal as a result of difficult access to the dollar. However, as the president of the Argentine Real Estate Chamber (CIA), Daniel Zampone to Ambit“Statistics indicate that, at some point, the sector will rise again“. For this reason, different leaders in the sector assure that in the not too distant future, the market will begin to recover and with it prices.
Properties: is it time to buy?
For the reasons mentioned above, the different sector analysts agree that “This is the time to invest, for those who have liquidity”. Currently, the average cost per m2 in CABA It is US$2,171 and The cost of a 50m2 studio apartment is US$95,191according to Zonaprop. This means that it is 22.5% below the maximum cost per m2 reached in 2019, when the sector was at its peak.
According to the real estate specialist Nancy Vieitezin the neighborhoods of little horse and Flowersthere is brand new studio apartments of 40 m2 au$s68,000while years ago the same apartments with similar characteristics, in price – which are usually cheaper – had a value of US$75,000.
On the contrary, Zampone assured that “It’s not time to sell“, since if the money is not urgently needed it is better to wait because the Reactivation of the real estate market is imminent and with it the recovery of prices. Therefore, surely the price offered per square meter from now on will be more convenient for the seller.
Is there a risk of rising construction costs?
Regarding the construction cost, the president of Abelson, Diego Abkiewiczstated that prices were very “pressured” and after the 54% devaluation of the peso, values became “sincere.”
“According to our calculation based on adjustments from the main brands in the construction materials sector with which we work, the increase reached 60%,” he stated. Abkiewicz. However, he acknowledged that from now on, prices are expected to keep pace with inflation.
Regarding the index carried out by the Argentine Chamber of Constructionwhich is the one used to update the installments in pesos (it is the one paid by whoever buys an apartment in a well that is financed during its construction), Since November 2022, monthly increases have varied between 4.7% and 19.7%the latter recorded in August compared to July.
Mortgage loans: is it possible that they will be reactivated in the short term?
The structural changes in the economy could give the sector its workhorse for the revival of sales: access to the famous and long-awaited mortgage credit. Now, in the short term there are no possibilities, since it is tied to the reorganization of the macroeconomy.
“By the end of 2024 or beginning of 2025 the credits would be activated”Zampone said.
In Argentina, the existing precedents are credits GRAPE (Purchasing Value Unit), which were granted in the government of Mauricio Macri and that reactivated the sector, which drove prices to maximums. However, The installments for those who took the loans, at a time with the acceleration of inflation, became too high and they claimed that they could not be paid.
“If I decide to have a reckless life, I have to pay the consequences. They would have taken another type of credit“said President Milei, referring to mortgage loans in his first statements after being elected, implying that he would not advance legislation in favor of debtors. There is currently a project to moderate debtor payments in the Chamber of Deputies that has half a sanction, but it was never discussed in the Senate.
Source: Ambito
