The level of economic activity marked in October a slight rebound of 0.6%, compared to the same month last year, while it fell 0.1% compared to September, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) reported this Thursday.
In this way, between January and October, the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) accumulates a decrease of 1.4%affected by drought.
In October, after 18 consecutive months of losses, The agricultural sector showed an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, driven by the work of the wheat campaign.
“In the year-on-year comparison, 4 of the 15 sectors that make up the EMAE fell in October, where transportation and communications (-2.3% y/y) and manufacturing industry (-0.9% y/y) stood out. The first, the one with the greatest negative impact within the EMAE sectors, on its own contributed -0.17 percentage points to the year-on-year fall of the index”, they highlighted from Balanz Research.
The fishing sector showed an increase of 19.1% and the exploitation of mines and quarries, driven by Vaca Muerta and lithium, an increase of 5.2%.
The construction sector also registered an increase of 3.2%, driven by mining and oil production; 2.9% in wholesale and retail trade: and an advance of 1.1% in the Hotels and restaurants category.
On the contrary, the manufacturing industry fell 0.5%; the distribution of water, gas and electricity fell 0.5%; and transportation fell 2.3% year-on-year.
On the other hand, there were increases of 0.4% in Financial Intermediation; 1.9% Real estate activities; 2.6% Public Administration; 2.7% teaching, among others. The numbers for November, when inflation was 12.8%, are not encouraging, according to private estimates.
Household consumption of goods and services fell 4.1% year-on-year last Novemberaccording to the Consumption Indicator (IC) prepared by the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services (CAC).
Furthermore, this in turn implied a seasonally adjusted contraction of 6.9% compared to the previous month, with which the indicator “showed a strong contraction due to the acceleration of inflation and the fall in purchasing power.”
The CAC analyzed that “With inflation accelerating, the disappearance of the last valid bonds and the lack of credit supply, November 2023 was marked by a large contraction in consumer purchasing power.”
From the industry side, Steel production fell 10% in November compared to the same month last year, due to the lack of foreign currency to pay for imports of basic inputs.
The Argentine Steel Chamber (CAA) also highlighted that November production fell 9.9% in relation to October, and that the production of rolled steel, in one month, registered “an even greater decline: 13.2%.”
The construction sector also showed a sharp decline during November: cement shipments fell 9.5% compared to October and 10.8% in the year-on-year comparison.
According to the 2024 Budget Law project sent to Congress, whose treatment did not advance in the middle of the electoral process, The GDP will decline 2.5% this year, strongly affected by the drought that impacted the agricultural sector and the agro-industrial sector. The level of economic activity registered positive numbers during the first three months of the current year.
In April, this trend was abruptly cut, when the EMAE registered a drop of 4.2%, which in May deepened to -6.1%, due to the drought.
The red numbers were repeated in June and July, while in August there was a slight recovery of 0.1%. This path of ups and downs was repeated in the following months, with a decrease of 0.7% year-on-year in September and -finally- an increase of 0.6% in October.
Source: Ambito
