After the change of Government and the defrosting of different price agreements, Inflation accelerated in December and would be around 25% according to estimates by private consulting firms. Food and mass consumption products would largely boost the CPI in the last month of the year.
In fact, according to a survey carried out by Ambit, A basket made up of 35 products, including food, drinks, cleaning and personal hygiene items, increased 29.5% since December 10, day of the inauguration of Javier Milei.
The speed of the increases was uneven between the different goods. By case, a top brand cola soda jumped 113% in the first weekand then remain at the same value during the following days.
While, The orange per kilo rose by 73.4% and a 6-unit package of sausages increased by 72.7% in the two weeks.. Cooked ham, for its part, shot up 68.5%; shampoo, 60%; and table bread, 55.5%.
The 10 products that increased the most in the last two weeks:
- First brand cola soda: 113%
- Orange per kilo: 73.4%
- Sausage package: 72.7%
- Cooked ham: 68.5%
- Shampoo: 60%
- White table bread: 55.5%
- Pork shoulder: 50%
- Liter beer: 48%
- Mayonnaise: 45%
- Liquid laundry soap: 43%
Other of the most marked increases were given by the cream cheese, which climbed 33.7%; fresh chicken, which increased 25.9%; and coffee, which rose 25%.
Some cuts of Beef, such as roast, roast lid and vacuum, rose 15% the first week of the Milei Government and then remained stable. The entrail, meanwhile, increased 27.75%. The increase occurred in line with a jump in the price of standing property, which then fell back: this meant that, despite being a time of high consumption, the values on the counter did not increase even further.
The onion, tomato and white potatowere the only products surveyed that did not show increases since December 10.
Rising inflation
The prices of goods massive consume that are sold in supermarkets are heading, in this way, to close December with an increase above the estimated general inflation. It is that at the end of the different agreements that put a limit on the increases, they were added a demand that remained highand not just for seasonal reasons.
In fact, a private survey found that until the middle of the month Sales in supermarkets grew in the year-on-year comparison. The “hedge” effect due to the change of Government and the subsequent official devaluation led many consumers to advance purchases and anticipate – as far as possible – subsequent increases.
Different consulting firms estimate that December inflation will be around 25%although some even project a number closer to 30%. In this regard, from Ecolatina they analyzed that, “after the moderation registered until the first half of October, from then on the inflationary dynamic quickly returned to exceed double monthly digits in the second half of October.”
“This acceleration was accentuated after the November 19 ballot, given the expectations of a prompt devaluation and the undocking current pricing agreements imposed by a government on departure that lost power of control and a future administration that promotes ‘free prices’affecting items such as mass consumption, fuels and medicines, among others,” the firm detailed.
In that scenario, The official figure for December (12.8%) was “old” according to Ecolatina’s analysis, which predicts “much higher inflation for the coming months.”
“In fact, already in the first half of December, prior to the full impact of the devaluation, the GBA Ecolatina CPI registered an increase in prices of 18.1% compared to the same period in November, driven mainly by Goods (+19 .5%), which are more infected by the exchange rate event. Likewise, we estimate an additional acceleration for the second half of the monthbringing monthly inflation to the 25% area and leaving a negative drag for January”the study concluded.
Source: Ambito
