Initially, BOPREAL aroused a lot of interest among stock market operators. This is because it has characteristics that make it similar to a linked dollar bond of those issued by the Treasury, with the advantage that it can be redeemed in advance. It may be a valid alternative for do dollar stock market operations and can be traded in secondary markets.
According to the Cohen brokerage company, the regulations allow these bonds to be subscribed to the official dollar and then sold at the financial dollar, so a greater differential between both increases the incentive to participate. “Currently, the gap remains low, operating below 20% (with the official exchange rate at $806.9 versus the CCL at $930). Given the very negative real rates, we expect the gap to increase to 35% by the end January (reaching approximately $1,140),” says Cohen.
Bonus for importers: market analysis
In this way, it is proposed that these circumstances encourage postpone participation in the BOPREAL tender and adopt a short-term dollarized position (using Argentine sovereign, provincial and/or corporate bonds). By selling them in mid-January in pesos and subscribing to the tender, an increase in the gap could be captured twice: once by selling the sovereign/provincial/corporate bond and once by entering the tender.
Cohen says that “if the gap remains stablethe opportunity cost of not subscribing seems low.” “With the official exchange rate rising to 2% monthly, the alternative of accruing a rate in pesos of 8.7% monthly with the idea of buying BOPREAL closer to the end of January, it seems superior.
“The risk of waiting and maintaining a flexible stance is that, late January, tenders could offer less favorable terms or, in the worst case scenario, they might not happen. However, these possibilities seem, for the moment, too premature,” the private report indicates.
Juan Pedro Mazza, fixed income strategist at Cohenconsiders that given the option of anticipating capital payments in pesos offered by BOPREAL, it acquires greater value the smaller the exchange gap as of 2025. “Illustratively, if the gap did not exist, the payment in pesos could be immediately converted to dollars with minimal additional costs, equivalent to receiving payment directly in dollars. In this context, We project a possible unification of the exchange rate for 2025, a situation that would benefit the bond“he indicated.
Bonuses for importers: what about the tax incentive?
For its part, since Aurum Values They maintain that the possibility of using it also as instrument to pay taxes It is “unattractive.”
“The use for this purpose of each series into which the BOPREAL is divided comes into effect from the same moment in which the right of redemption can be exercised. Only if the stocks continue to offer high gaps there might be some degree of incentive to use it to pay taxes (for the exchange rate differential that would allow the use of the AFIP)”, they expressed.
“Just because the MULC/MEP/CCL cross restrictionthe government could aspire to obtain some degree of interest on this bond since it would be the only one that can be sold against USD without losing access to the MULC. Advantages of inheriting the worst stocks of the Massa management and not releasing it, preventing the market from allocating resources efficiently,” they concluded.
Source: Ambito
