This was estimated by different sources in the sector, which account for a decline in fuel sales in December and so far in January. Although the exact figure is still difficult to specify, they also warn that the possibility of new increases in the near future will hit the economy harder. demand.
In this scenario, it is expected “renaissance” of CNG. Workshops dedicated to equipment placement received a flood of queries in the last days and They predict strong growth in conversions for the coming months. In fact, after 2023 with the lowest numbers since the industry has recorded, a strong rebound is expected.
Although, they warn, the economy itself will put the roof: install a computer around $950,000 and, although the investment is “recovered” in less than a year with savings (depending on use), the lack of financing and limits on credit cards can limit the level of conversions.
Fuels: increases and falls in demand
Wednesday, January 3 fuels increased on average by 27%, and thus they were added to the two increases that gasoline had had in December: approximately one 30% the 8th and between the 30th and the 37% on the 13th, after the official devaluation.
Thus, the price of super gasoline of YPF in the City of Buenos Aires was located around the $700 and accumulated an increase of 125% since November. The premium, for its part, became worth $868 and rose 119% since November.
The increases, which occurred in a context of marked inflationary accelerationimpacted consumption: by case, according to the specialized site Econojournalsome private oil companies had a drop of almost 10% in sales during Decemberin comparison with the same month of the previous year.
“We are still evaluating the percentage, doing a survey to know for sure how much it dropped, but the loss is felt. The drop in demand is a consequence of the increases that have occurred“, explained to Ámbito Isabelino Rodríguez, president of the Confederation of Hydrocarbon and Related Trade Entities of Argentina (CECHA).
Although it is still early to quantify the drop in demand, Rodríguez estimated that it would be in the order of 20%although he clarified: “They are provisional projections. And the impact is not the same throughout the country. There are stations on the routes that, due to vacations, maintain consumption levels. It is more noticeable in big cities.”
In any case, beyond highlighting the impact on domestic demand, the head of CECHA maintained that these new fuel values “also have an effect upstream, in an export project for Argentina, to be able to provide predictability for investments in Vaca Dead”. “We are talking about an energy matrix and the important thing is that we can develop it”, he concluded.
CNG is “reborn”: how much are the savings?
Hand in hand with the latest increases in liquid fuels and the consequent drop in demand, the interest of motorists in “converting” their vehicles to CNG also grew. “With the December increases, demand had begun to move. After the last increase, inquiries and requests skyrocketed. Many people also come who already had the equipment installed, but need a repair: before, perhaps, they did not use the CNG car,” Federico Baratella, president of the Chamber of Equipment Manufacturers (CAPEC), explained to Ámbito.
The specialist pointed out that the demand ““It went from being stopped in November to now becoming crazy.” “It happens that before the price of gasoline didn’t hurt so much. Now there is a very big difference: while the liter of premium gasoline exceeds $800, a m3 of CNG costs around $250. It is worth clarifying that a liter of gasoline yields more or less the same as a m3 of gas,” said Baratella.
In that scenario, he graphed that while for fill the tank of a medium car with premium gasoline costs about $35,000to obtain an equivalent autonomy in CNG currently spending about $12,000.
This reality makes the sector excited about a strong increase in conversions during 2024. “In 2023 we had the worst year in the history of CNGwith an average of 6,000 conversions per month, when the historical figure was around 15,000. In the best moments, which coincided with crisis moments or exits, peaks of 25,000 and 30,000 installations were reached per month,” said Baratella.
And he concluded: “Now We hope to reach 12,000 or 13,000 installations in January.. The expectations are to reach the historical average of 15,000, which would be tripling what we did last year. It will not increase more, because the ceiling is financing. People don’t come with money. Not everyone has $950,000 in their pocket, which is what the equipment costs. Not everyone has the amount available on their credit card either.”
Source: Ambito
