After knowing the inflation data for December, the highest in 33 years, the Central Bank (BCRA) announced this Thursday the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) for 2023in which City analysts They worsened the CPI forecast, to the point that they estimated 25% for January, and 213% year-on-year (21.2 points more than the previous month) for all of 2024.
According to the BCRA’s REM, those who best predicted inflation in the past (Top-10) expected in the survey at the end of December a inflation of 25.5% for January and 201.5% yoy for 2024. Regarding the Core CPI, REM participants placed their forecasts for 2024 at 243.4% yoy
Likewise, they estimated that the CPI It would only return to one monthly digit by next June (8.3%), after projecting 18.2% for February, 15% for March, 12% for April and 10% for May.
This projection was released by the monetary entity, after the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) reported that December inflation was 25.5%.
The BCRA survey, carried out between December 27 and 29, covered a total of 37 participants, among which were 25 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 12 Argentine financial entities.
December REM: official dollar
Regarding the exchange rate, REM analysts predicted in $820.3 per dollar the wholesale price for the first month of 2024. For the Top-10, the expected average nominal exchange rate for January is $834.9.
The interannual variation as of December 2024 implicit in the forecasts amounted to 164.8%.
December REM: rates
For January, those participating in the REM predicted a BADLAR rate of private banks of 108.30% Annual Nominal Rate, equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 8.9%.
December REM: GDP
Regarding the level of activity, The analysts’ projection was that 2023 would have closed with a 2.3% decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while for 2024 they estimated a growth of 2.6%, lower than the 2023 average, worsening the outlook by 0.2 pp compared to the previous survey.
This deterioration was concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which participants reduced their forecast by 0.9 pp. Meanwhile, the Top-10 projected, on average, a reduction of 2.7% for the year. By 2025, REM participants estimated growth of 2.3% yoy
December REM: unemployment
Meanwhile, the open unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 was projected at 6.6%, with a drop of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous REM, which would place it above the 6.3% with which it closed 2022.
Source: Ambito
