Journalist: How do you evaluate the possibility of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund?
Laura Testa: On the one hand, I think that the Government will end up agreeing, since since they took office they have said and stated that it is a great concern that they have, so they are determined to agree. On the other hand, it is relevant to see under what conditions that agreement is reached. It is important to understand that not fixing with the Fund has economic consequences that are not free for the population, at a time when the country needs to grow economically.
Q .: Do you see an agreement possible before March?
L.T.: From what is known, the Government said that on December 22 the maturity will be canceled for US $ 1,900 million, which gives us a certain margin to be able to continue discussing a possible agreement between now and March, which is the next maturity of capital that we have and that is important to achieve, to avoid this drain of dollars that we live today in Argentina. Indeed today the central bank has few dollars in terms of nominal reserves. But I do not think it has to do with a structural issue, but rather with a question of expectations and uncertainty that we live today, mainly of the agents that move the ammeter of the dollar.
Q .: What conditions do you think the Fund will ask for in order to agree?
L.T.: Historically, the Fund asks for the same clauses: lower the fiscal deficit, control inflation and stop intervening in the exchange market, that is, stop intervening in the currency so that a devaluation is not generated. I believe that in a context with the economic axes that Argentina has, that is worrying. The country has a poverty rate of 40%, which is alarming, especially in a country that does not bear lightly these poverty and unemployment rates that we live today. So the government must do everything possible to fix those numbers. I think that the latest data that emerged around the industry are positive, since there is beginning to be an economic reactivation and the employment industry, but the impacts are not generated as quickly as we would like. The macroeconomic axes have been accommodating for a long time, so in this sense the fiscal adjustment could be detrimental.
Q .: What steps can the government take to correct the inflation numbers?
L.T.: I believe that inflation is a multi-causal and structural factor, so one of the main axes for thinking about inflation has to do with people’s expectations. In the short term, a price freeze may be useful. At the same time, try to reach agreements with businessmen mainly on the prices of food, which are the ones that suffocate the most.
In the long term, you have to think about other issues, such as trying to generate a base to anchor other prices that are the drivers of inflation in Argentina such as wages, rents, construction, energy, etc. On the other hand, it is important to ask yourself how to separate international prices from domestic market prices, at a time when the price of commodities is on the rise.
Q .: In relation to the multi-year plan, what do you think will be the main objectives?
L.T.: It has to do with a base of agreements that they are trying to reach with the Fund, and that it is going to have these main drivers of the economy, including the deficit, inflation, and exchange rate. But it is not yet known where these indicators are going to go. Martín Guzmán said that the agreement will not be based on the adjustment, but based on economic growth, and I believe in the word of the minister. On the other hand, it is a time when Argentina has a window of opportunity, since in many countries the conditions of the Fund are being discussed, such as the surcharge for having accessed a credit greater than 1000% of those that the country contributes to the organization.
Source From: Ambito
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