Nowthe pressure shifts to regulated prices which, hand in hand with the unfreezing of services, will put pressure on the January number. However, there is agreement that this figure would be lower than December.
The survey carried out by the LCG consulting on weekly inflation in food and beverages measured an inflation of 2.1% for the third week of January, and chains the fifth consecutive week downafter the record of 11.5% in the third week of December.
According to the consulting firm’s records, in the measurement of the month it accumulates an inflation of 10.7% and The average increase in the last 4 weeks is 28.6%.
Although the number is very high, carryover weeks are given greater weight, so in the coming weeks the number should be reduced considerably.
“Average inflation slowed after 14 weeks, reaching 28.6% monthly average. Inflation accumulated in the last four weeks moved downward, reaching 18.6% end to end“they estimated.
Inflation: which foods rose the most
In the composition of the average 28.6%, ethe category “meats” It explains 32% of the monthly variation, contributing 9.02 percentage points to the index. “Drinks and infusions for the home” (4.46 pp); Dairy products and eggs (4.4 pp), “Baking, cereals and pasta” (3.89 pp), complete the main items that explain the increases.
Food inflation in the second week of January was 4.8%, as measured by Eco Go, and “Inflation of food consumed at home is projected at 21.3% for the entire month, which implies a slowdown compared to the previous month”they indicated.
Thus, the projection of the consulting firm directed byr Marina Dal Poggeyto and Sebastian Menescaldi projects a monthly inflation of 19.8% for the month of January.
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Inflation: another consulting firm predicts a lower CPI in January
Meanwhile, since the Freedom and Progress Foundation revealed that the rise in the CPI accumulated in the first two weeks of January is around 10%, which means The month aims to close in the 15%-20% rangeaccording to the evolution of the last two weeks.
The items that rose the most are those where prices that were artificially delayed were revealed: transportation, communications and medicine. A phenomenon that will surely be repeated in the coming months, with regulated prices rising above the general CPI.
“It is expected that in the coming months we will continue sellingo Two-digit monthly CPIs, There are still several regulated prices to be updated, such as service rates. However, this recomposition of relative prices, which has an upward impact on the CPI, should not be confused with an acceleration of the Argentine inflationary process.”analyzed Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation.
The same day that December inflation was known, andl Central Bank announced the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) with the data presented between December 27 and 29, 2023. There the average of the consulting firms and analysts consulted worsened the CPI forecast and estimated 25% for January, and a 213% year-on-year, which translates into a worsening of projections (21.2 points more than the previous month) for all of 2024.
Source: Ambito
