January inflation would be around 20%, according to the first estimates of private consulting firms. Although it will continue at very high levels, it would represent a deceleration compared to December data.
Different surveys show a lower intensity in the increases of different goods. Something that is also reflected in the survey carried out Ambit in a chain of supermarkets over one basket made of food and cleaning and personal hygiene items.
The total of these 35 products presented a variation of “barely” 1% in the last week, slowing down considerably compared to the previous weeks: it had increased around 5.5% in each. This way, So far in January this basket has increased by 12.4%.
A variation that, although it continues to be high, is below those registered in December: for example, during the first week of the government of Javier Mileithis indicator presented a jump of 16%.
One of the factors that can explain this deceleration in the prices of different mass consumption items is the drop in demand. For example, according to a private survey In the first week of the year, sales in supermarkets sank 19% in relation to the same period of 2023. And it is estimated, so far, a contraction of 7% for the accumulated period in 2024.
Inflation: which products rose the most in January
During the third week of January, only five of the 35 items in the basket showed increases. He shampoo led the increases, with a rise of 19.4%; for his part the rice increased 18.2% and the mayonnaise, 15.6%. Meanwhile, the kilo of orange climbed 14.4% and the tomato5%.
The situation is different in the accumulated of the month, where most articles showed increases. One of the exceptions was beefwhich after a jump in the first days of December It remains stable hand in hand with a property price that has fallen in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, some brands and varieties of products such as ground coffee and packages diapers of different sizes, there are out of stock for several weeks. Something that happened in recent days with toothpaste, after making a strong jump of 82.5% the previous week.
In this way, the ten products that increased the most in the supermarket so far January are the following:
- Toothpaste: 82.5%
- Tomato: 50%
- Rice: 48.4%
- Cooked Ham: 38%
- Shampoo: 31.7%
- Beer: 29.5%
- Laundry soap: 27%
- Milk: 26.8%
- Anco squash: 25%
- Toilet paper 20%
Inflation: survey of consulting firms and forecasts
According to different private surveys, the price rise slowed during the third week of January. This was reflected, for example, by the “high-frequency weekly inflation” measured by the consulting firm. Orlando Ferreres.
“It was 1.4% weekly, the lowest in four months, but accumulated 15.4% in three weekswith a statistical drag of 7.7% since December,” explained economist Fausto Spotorno.
Along the same lines, the survey of food and beverage prices carried out by LCG frame “a slowdown in inflation of 1.6 pp, reaching a week-to-week variation of 2.1%. Average monthly inflation slowed down, after 14 straight weeks on the rise, standing at 28.6%. However, the percentage of products with weekly increases remained high and stood at 37%, in line with the average of the last 4 weeks,” the firm explained.
With everything, Projections from different firms place January inflation around 20%. But the increases in different regulated prices will add extra pressure in the coming months. This is how a report by EPyCA Consultantswhich estimated that only with the increases in buses, gas, electricity, education and prepaid medicine, “In February inflation would have an additional 16% and in March 7%.”
“The floor to which these increases are added will be given by inertia, the rearrangement of relative prices as a result of these shocks in increases in specific items, the second round effects and expectations. They are all dynamic and subjective elements: but the floor they set for inflation for these coming months is extremely high and does not have to be lower than that registered in December or January,” the consultancy summarized.
Source: Ambito
