In February the strong incentive of the Country Tax exemption ends. Luis Caputo hopes to place around US$5 billion, but two terminals that were going to use the instrument were withdrawn from the bidding. The market expects more pressure on parallel dollars.
A key week for the dollar begins. Until January 31, the Bonds for the Reconstruction of a Free Argentina (Bopreal) do not pay PAIS tax, a key incentive to place the nearly US$5,000 million that the Government is seeking. So far, the Central Bank has barely been able to accumulate about US$1.6 billion, highly concentrated in a firm in the automotive sector. The economic team’s bet was that the rest would be covered by two other terminals. But market sources anticipated Ambit that the operation still does not convince importers. They warn of more pressure in the exchange gap.
A little over a month after the exchange rate jump of more than 118% carried out by the government of Javier Milei, The exchange gap once again appears as a central factor in the Argentine economy. Last week, parallel dollars rose again in all their versions and the difference between the official rate and the Cash with Settlement segment reached 60%.
One of the tools that the economic team devised to stop the foreseeable escalation is BOPREAL, which was not only created to “organize” the US$26,000 million of commercial debt of importers that the Ministry of Commerce has already registered, but which also aims to dry out the square. The BCRA’s idea is to prevent these operations from being channeled through parallel dollars and create “a bridge” until there is more supply of currency and fewer pesos circulating.
The objective of the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, was to place about US$5,000 million in this first stage. This calculation is based on the estimate that in the automotive sector alone there has been a liability of at least US$5.9 billion. The Central Bank has managed to allocate US$1.6 billion so far, mostly to Toyota, and the economic team hoped to complete that quota with the commitment of two other terminals.
Bopreal does not seduce
But in the industry and in the market they anticipated Ambit that in the last hours there was a retreat on the part of the companies. The instrument does not end up seducing importers, firstly because all the firms in question already had some coverage and secondly because of the refusal of suppliers and parent companies to take it into account for commercial debt.
In the automotive sector, the situation of supplies is critical, to the point that more than one terminal plans to extend the recess due to the shortage of parts. So the priority of companies at this time is to pay and put the factories into operation. Until now, most companies choose to regularize the situation with their suppliers via Cash with Settlement.
To achieve the objective, the Government will then have to attract companies from other sectors. Although as this media learned, both in the metallurgical, food and electronics sectors they see the same obstacle: the difficulty of paying suppliers in this way. This week is essential because Bopreal subscriptions made until January 31, 2024 are exempt from PAIS tax. It is a great incentive that will no longer be in force.
The account they make in the market is simple. Less demand for Bopreal, if the Government does not manage to channel it through another means, there will be more demand in the CCL and therefore, more pressure on parallel dollars. A few weeks before the heavy harvest begins to be liquidated, it raises questions about the future of the official dollar.
Source: Ambito
