Economists consulted by Ámbito estimate a real cut of 30%. The formula proposed by the Government, adjusted by CPI, will keep assets in real terms “at very low levels” since it does not propose exceeding the price level, but rather maintaining them after an adjustment in the first quarter.
The Executive Branch sent to the National Congress the bill “Bases and Starting Points for the Freedom of Argentines” with modifications, derogations and clarifications regarding the original version. The new document proposes updating the pension benefits based on inflation, but since April. Specialists in dialogue with Ámbito highlight that it will work as long as prices go down and They estimate 30% tax savings in real terms, in line with the budget adjustment.
For the National Government, the alternative to the mobility formula used during the previous administration is the following: As of April 1, 2024, the index to calculate pension benefits would be obtained monthly, according to the latest inflation data. monthly available at the time of beginning the payment cycle. Unión por la Patria had contemplated a formula that combined 50% of the Anses collection and another 50% of the salary variation.
For the specialists consulted, the key is at the starting point. Since April, retirees could no longer aspire to receive pensions above inflation, although not below either. However, in line with the inflation projection estimated in the REM -provided by the BCRA- The months with the highest price increases will not be considered in the forecast calculation. According to Lucio Garay Méndez, Eco Go economist, the adjustment on pensions “It’s brutal.” This would be so because in principle “they would be given a 30% nominal increase for pensions for the September-December period, when in the December-March period you will have an inflation of 65%”, in case it slows down in the last two months as a result of a recession. Therefore, the quarter would not be considered either for the previous formula – in a context of increased revenue due to increased inflation and parity increases – or retroactively by the Government.
Once the formula is applied – which must be approved in Congress – retirees “would only maintain real benefits for these sectors when inflation slows down,” explains Garay Méndez. For this, the inflationary dynamic would have to enter a descending nominal value and the month prior to the update would have to be higher than the next. But the economist also points out that In this way, “the inflation that escaped in the first quarter” will never be recomposed.. Regarding the latter, he concludes: “The idea is to finish liquefying pensions, reduce budget items even more and keep them in real terms at those very low levels.”
That is why the objective of tax savings does not disappear from the official Excel. Pablo Besmedrisnik, director of VDC Consultora, puts a number on the Government’s strategy: “In a conservative scenario with inflation of around 60% during the 1st quarter of 2024, the State would generate a real tax saving of 30% in the payment of retirements,” he explains. For Garay Méndez, the adjustment in pension assets is in line with the Government’s stated objectives -0.4% of GDP-.
In this context, Dante Moreno, economist at Epyca consultancy, the update via CPI is not a fundamental measure, it is necessary to define a level of basic retirement that avoids income below the poverty line, in a context where the basket of retirees was markedly more expensive due to the rise in medicines, which between January and December 2023 registered an increase of 319.1%, much higher than the annualized CPI according to Indec (211.4%). Due to the same situation, the Ombudsman for the Elderly, Eugenio Semino, warned on Radio 10 that the State must grant an emergency increase on December salaries, as they are the main victims of the inflationary acceleration.
Source: Ambito
