It is that from February The update of electricity rates will begin to impact the CPI. public transportation, as well as public services, prepaid and education. Since March, the time when the liquidation of the harvest soybean, a possible correction in the official exchange rate could also put upward pressure on prices.
In this way, although in some scenarios a downward path for inflation was proposed in the coming months, The truth is that different economists point out that it could remain around 20% during the first part of the year.
“If they actually comply with the announced increases, February inflation would not drop substantially and could even accelerate. Of course, the Government could delay the increases or stagger them differently, spreading the inflationary impact over the coming months. But if it complies with what has been announced so far, inflation would remain above 20% monthly for much of the first half of the year.“, he pointed out to Ámbito Martin Kalosdirector of EPyCA Consultores.
For its part, Juan Manuel Telechea, director of the Institute of Labor and Economy (ITE) of the German Abdala Foundation, said that for January they estimate “an inflation similar to that of December, around 25%.” “In February, we expect a slight drop that would place it close to 20%,” he added.
“For March, the big question is to see what is going to happen with the exchange rate. If it continues as before and the Government manages to maintain the crawling peg at 2%, without this having a very strong impact on the gap, I believe that inflation should drop significantly: probably around 15% or less”Telechea explained.
Although he clarified: “But it seems to me that This scenario is not very sustainable and surely in the middle the Central Bank will make some type of change with the exchange rate policy.. Either a devaluation or adjusting crawling to a level closer to inflation: with either of those two scenarios, it seems to me that Inflation would rebound and we could see inflation still at levels around 20% by March.”
For its part, Claudio Caprarulodirector at Analytica, said that, although the firm estimates a “inflation down“, It will remain “in still very high percentages in the first quarter”. “In the coming months, a large part of this year’s price dynamics will also play out, both because an exchange rate correction is discounted, abandoning the 2% monthly variation in the official dollar, and because of the jump in parity increases,” he noted. the Economist.
In this context, although he stressed that it is difficult to estimate a number for inflation in the coming months, he assured that A sharp slowdown is not expected in the short term..
Inflation: impact of rate increases
According to INDEC data, the division with the greatest impact on December inflation was food and beverages, which shot up 29.7%. It occurred after the devaluation and the end of the different official price agreements.
After this increase, January began with marked inertia and according to the estimates of Eco Go Food prices would increase by around 20% this month. In any case, given a drop in consumption and a lower variation in the price of meat, the increases began to slow down.
In the coming months, the greatest impact on inflation would come from “regulated” services. For example, a report from EPyCA He pointed out that only if the increases in buses, gas, electricity, education and prepaid medicine are contemplated, “In February inflation would have an additional 16% and in March 7%.”
“The floor to which these increases are added will be given by inertia, the rearrangement of relative prices as a result of these shocks in increases in specific items, the second round effects and expectations. They are all dynamic and subjective elements: but the floor they set for inflation for these coming months is extremely high and does not have to be lower than that registered in December or January”, they maintained from the signature.
Source: Ambito
