In this sense, warned about annual inflation in 2021 and what is projected for 2022: “For this year we calculate that it will close at 51% and that by 2022 it will be a little higher than 57%, as a result of the fact that we have to adjust a series of values that are frozen today, such as rates. I think it will not there should be a large devaluation but a daily devaluation, that is to say, an increased crawling peg, at a rate of 4% to 5%, from January to April, until that process is exhausted a little with a quite significant acceleration of inflation “.
Last week, the Central Bank released the Market Expectations Survey (REM) carried out by the Central Bank. Market analysts raised the inflation forecast for 2022 to 52.1% year-on-year, 3.2% more than the October report. The truth is that with the estimates for the month of November that will be known in the coming days, inflation in 2021 reaches 50% year-on-year and leaves a very high floor for 2022.
A point to note is that inflation estimates from January onwards continue to point upward: “Those who analyze the evolution of the different economic variables revised their inflation forecasts at the general level. Their short-term estimates2 indicate that the inflation rate monthly it would be 3.1% in the month of November, after registering a variation of 3.5% in the month of October. However, the expected variations for the next six months are higher “, they affirmed.
“With respect to the last survey, the estimates for the coming months were corrected upwards. Both for the month of November and December 2021 it rose 0.1 percentage points (pp). For both January and February 2022 the Expectation rose by 0.2 pp. Meanwhile, in April 2022 a 0.1 pp higher variation is projected. For the month of May 2022 the expectation is 3.5% “, they concluded.
Inflation 2021-2022 month by month:
- November 2021: 3.1%
- December 2021: 3.4%
- January 2022: 3.7%
- February: 3.7%
- March 2022: 4%
- April: 3.7%
- Mayo: 3,5%
Source From: Ambito
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