The six-day strike by train drivers is also throwing the economy into turmoil. Industry associations warn of downtimes, production losses and billions in damage. Alarmism or legitimate concern?
The strike by the GDL train drivers’ union in Deutsche Bahn’s freight transport is expected to last 144 hours, exactly six days – and therefore eight hours longer than in passenger transport. It is the longest strike that the German Locomotive Drivers’ Union has carried out in freight transport, at least during the term of office of its chairman, Claus Weselsky. The outrage over the industrial action is therefore not only great among passengers. Business associations are also angry – and fear significant damage.
There is a threat of severe restrictions, including individual production downtimes, cutbacks and standstills in the industry, said Tanja Gönner, managing director of the Federal Association of German Industry, on Wednesday in Berlin. “In a six-day strike, a total damage amount of up to one billion euros is not unrealistic.” The Association of the Automotive Industry and the chemical industry had also warned of significant impacts in recent days.
Serious calculations of damage are difficult
According to Deutsche Bahn, European freight traffic across the Alps, to Poland or Scandinavia and to the seaports in Holland and Belgium is also affected. “In the run-up to the GDL strike, DB Cargo registered a significant decline in volumes,” the group said.
But how much damage can a six-day strike by a sectoral union really cause to Germany as a business location? When asked, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) considers serious calculations to be extremely difficult and therefore does not want to make any statement.
Only just under a fifth of all goods in Germany are transported by rail. To a large extent, these include raw materials such as oil, coal, metals or chemical products as well as cars. This means that the strike is particularly affecting high-turnover industries these days. In the event of a short strike of two or three days, no major disruptions are to be expected because the warehouses are usually well filled, says Dirk Engelhardt, board spokesman for the Federal Association of Road Haulage Logistics and Waste Disposal (BGL). It becomes more difficult where the railway is integrated into the just-in-time supply chains, i.e. it has to deliver raw materials and accessories exactly when they are needed.
“60 percent of rail freight traffic is rolling as usual”
However, Deutsche Bahn is not the only transporter of goods by rail. Their market share in freight transport has declined sharply in recent years. The former monopolist only controls 40 percent of rail freight transport. Competitors divide the rest among themselves.
Their association, Die Güterbahnen, does not want to know anything about the alarm caused by the strike. “60 percent of rail freight transport runs as usual and often even reaches its destination better because of an empty network,” said association managing director Peter Westenberger.
But experts believe it is hardly possible that rail competitors will now take over transport on a large scale and mitigate the effects of the industrial dispute. “Given the current shortage of personnel, I assume that competitors can only provide a limited amount of additional capacity for train drivers and in terminals,” says Christian Böttger, transport researcher at the Berlin University of Applied Sciences.
Engelhardt from BGL said that hardly any additional transport capacity could be provided on the road due to the acute shortage of drivers. He even sees the so-called combined road and rail transport at risk from the GDL strike. His association has long advocated reloading containers for the long journey onto the railway, which is now proving to be unreliable. “If the truck drivers behaved like the GDL, total chaos would break out in this country in a very short time,” said Engelhardt.
Massive disruptions in many companies
“It is hardly possible to understand the entire extent of the failures,” says Dirk Flege, managing director of the pro-rail Alliance, of which both the GDL and Deutsche Bahn are members. Rattling is part of the craft, he emphasizes, referring to the complaints from business. But Flege also emphasizes: “Of course there are massive upheavals in many companies, that can be assumed as certain.”
Above all, he fears that the strike will result in a further loss of trust in rail transport. The numerous construction sites, the high level of unpunctuality and the impending general renovation of the railway network are already leading to great uncertainty. “If the perception were to become established that one can no longer rely on rail freight transport due to the constant strikes, then that would massively destroy trust and torpedo the transport transition,” says Flege. He is also in favor of the railway and Weselsky’s GDL getting back to the negotiating table as quickly as possible.
Source: Stern
