He Dolar blue closed at its maximum nominal value this Wednesday since it was sold to $1,255. For its part, The dollar Counted with Settlement touched $1,300 while the MEP remained above $1,200. Given this, Ambit he proposed to put together a greenback “traffic light”. For this, he consulted with economists who chose which ones the threats (red), the context that can influence (yellow) and the events that would cause the increases to moderate (green).
Dollar traffic light: red
For the economist Gustavo Berif they happen lower BCRA purchases, and the 2% crawling-peg extends too long, there will be an exchange rate delay and this will pressure the greenback upwards. It should be noted that The official dollar rose 118% at the beginning of Javier Milei’s government but the strong inflationary inertia of 25.5% in December and an expectation of 20% at least in January and February, put at risk the exchange anchor that the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, is looking for.
In turn, the financial analyst Gustavo Quintana He revealed what his warning signs would be for the dollar: If the BCRA continues to maintain strongly negative interest rates, it is decided to continue with the exchange restrictions (stocks).the card dollar ($1,385 against $1,250 for blue) is not canceled and An inflationary process continues that acquires a dynamic that is difficult to contain. It should be noted in this regard that the BCRA decided to lower interest rates despite the CPI scale (at this time it is at 110% of TNA).
For her part, the economist Elena Alonsosaid It is a bad sign for the dollar that real rates are negative because This generates more demand for dollars. Refering to widening of the gapadded more reasons: “The Government started with a gap of 20% but there are the same restrictions as beforeFor example, for importers who cannot access the official dollar and this generates demand in financial exchange rates.”
Claudio Caprarulodirector of Analyticsalso analyzed what threats the dollar has today: “The normalization of imports is going to begin to put pressure on import demand while the seasonality of exports makes the supply of dollars low. The Central Bank will probably begin to buy fewer dollars, potentially moving into a selling position. And also, the lack of savings instruments “Due to the rate scheme chosen by the government, liquidity continues to have incentives to go towards the dollar.”
Finally, for the economist Amilcar Collante: “The most relevant thing is the evaluation expectation. We must see if the fiscal adjustment is viable, if the law passes and if all the reforms that the Government wants can be made. “I see any refusal from the opposition that complicates the fiscal adjustment as a sign of threat.”
Dollar traffic light: yellow
As for important events to keep in mind, Ber specified that it will be necessary monitor approval of the Omnibus Law and soybean price. Regarding the first point, the Government obtained an opinion and the ruling party plans to start the debate in the lower house this Thursday. It should be noted that last week, The Executive extended the extraordinary sessions until February 15.
This way, President Javier Milei’s swords will have more time to discuss the axes of his first and main legal-political commitment embodied in the megaproject officially labeled as “Bases Law and starting points for the freedom of Argentines.” The action became known after the mobilization called by the General Confederation of Labor (CGT) ended.
Regarding soybeans, The price is currently below US$450 and accumulates a drop of almost 5% in the Chicago market in 2024., pressured by an abundant harvest in Argentina. While stressful heat is forecast in the growing areas of our country for the next few days, grain market players continue to debate the size of Brazil’s developing corn and soybean cropswhich will influence the value of the oilseed.
Collante also expressed himself about this: “Something important about the context is the price of grains, which is fundamental for Argentina. At the moment they are in decline and if they adjust much more downwards you have to take into account that perhaps there will not be as many dollars as the Central Bank needs to accumulate.”.
Caprarulo, for his part, mentioned to Bopreal, which indicated that it works to stop the rise of the CCL: “The problem is that the secondary market still has little volume.” Last Thursday was the fourth Bopreal tender with an award of only NV US$340 million, accumulating a total NV US$1,644M. “Although the prices in the secondary market are beginning to shrink, it is not yet attractive for importers”revealed in an Eco Go report.
Dollar traffic light: green
Gustavo Quintana He believed that the gap will narrow to the extent that some events begin to materialize as: sanction of the project sent by the Executive Branch (the Omnibus Law), less reflux of pesos (that the demand for money grows), interest rate rise and a gradual decline in inflation.
In turn, Ber asserted that among the positive signs for the price of the greenback to decline are: that there is a strong slowdown in inflation, and access to external financing. “With respect to the second requirement, I mean that fresh funds be obtained from abroad,” the economist clarified.
“I think that will decrease when the harvest begins to impact the balance of the Central Bank (BCRA)then it is expected that begin to release the stocks as reserves increase. I think it will be like a kind of fountain with which they will be able to control the exchange rate,” said Alonso.
For Caprarulo“the sharp drop in family income and lower sales in some sectors reduces the pesos that can be used to cover the purchase of dollars“.
Finally, Collante said: “It is a good sign if the BCRA continues buying and you have a slightly more open stocks. The challenge is to open imports and be able to continue accumulating reserves, especially in the second quarter of the year.“.
Source: Ambito
