As can be seen from the report prepared by the LCG consultingin the last week the prices of the basket of food and drinks that reveal They accelerated 1.3 percentage points (pp) to increase 3.5% compared to the previous week.
In this way, the rise averages 23.1% in the last four weeks and a 14.6% end to end in the same period. These variations continued with a downward trend: in fact, if compared with the same period in December (that is, the fourth week of the month), The firm’s survey accumulated an increase of 27.1% on average and 36.1% measured end to end.
Therefore, beyond the acceleration that was recorded in the last week, During January, food prices rose to a lesser extent than throughout December. Which will favor, in part, a general inflation figure that will also be below the previous one: they estimate around 20%.
Inflation: which foods rose and which fell
In the last week, according to the LCG report the “Dairy” and “Baked Foods” explained 45% of weekly inflation (they contributed 1.55 pp). In any case, the item with the greatest impact within the index was the “meats”, which climbed 2.7% weekly.
Meanwhile, the division that rose the most was “sugar and sweets”, followed by “dairy products and eggs” (5.7%) and “baked goods, cereals and pastas” (5.2%).
For its part, Fruits showed a drop in the week of 2.3%, while the vegetables they descended 0.2%.
In the average variation of the last four weeks, “condiments and other food products” increased the most (61.6%), followed by “oils” 33.5%. For its part, meats 20.5% and explain 28% of the total monthly variation.
Days ago, the consulting firm Eco Go also released its survey of retail prices, in which it determined that food prices increased 3.8% in the third week of January. “With this data and incorporating a projection for the remaining week of 3%, the inflation of food consumed within the home would be 20.9% in January,” the firm estimated.
Inflation: what could be the CPI for January 2024
In this scenario, from different private consultancies They estimate monthly inflation of around 20% for January, which would represent a slowdown compared to the 25.5% from December.
“With data up to the third week, January inflation would close at around 20%. This corresponds with a slowdown that became more evident in the third weekwhen a weekly variation of 1.8% was recorded, the lowest since the second week of November,” explained Lautaro Moschet, Economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation.
““One of the keys to the recent analysis is that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category slowed down 4.7 points and closed the third week below 2%,” clarified the analyst, who concluded: “In monthly terms, our price index reached its peak during the first week of January, reaching a variation of 29.6%, which slowed to 27.4% during the second week and “It placed 23.2% in the third.”
Source: Ambito
