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Friedrich Schneider has been calculating the shadow economy in Austria and Europe for decades. The volume increased more or less continuously. The upward outliers were 2009, the year of the stock market crisis, the years 2014 and 2015 (debt crisis) and the first year of the Corona crisis with the associated recession. “In these years, undeclared work rose particularly sharply as a result of economic problems. In 2020 it even increased by more than 12 percent,” says Schneider.
Last year the biggest increase was recorded in Austria. Due to the economic downturn and inflation, the volume increased by 15 percent. That was the biggest increase in 25 years. Schneider has been calculating the shadow economy since 1990. Schneider had originally expected an even greater increase, but the abolition of cold progression and government support measures would have had a dampening effect.
This year, Schneider once again expects noticeable growth of 3.8 percent compared to the previous year. Since inflation is still high and unemployment is rising, there would be greater demand for bungling and undeclared work, but the abolition of cold progression would also slow the increase this year.
Even though undeclared work has increased sharply, it is lowest in Austria and Luxembourg compared to the EU. While it accounts for 7.5 percent of the gross domestic product in Austria, its share is over 30 percent in Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania.
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