At the beginning of the final quarter of 2021, the economic engine, export, is surprisingly gaining momentum again. Economists see this as a buffer in view of the expected difficult winter.
German exports returned unexpectedly strong in October despite delivery bottlenecks. After two weak months in a row, exports rose by 4.1 percent compared to September, calendar and seasonally adjusted, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Thursday.
Analysts had expected significantly less. The pre-crisis level of February 2020, the month before the start of the corona restrictions, was exceeded again after a dip in September.
“Despite all the adversities, German foreign trade is finally back to pre-crisis level,” said Dirk Jandura, President of the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade, Services (BGA). “In view of the many problems in the supply chains, this is really good news at the start of the fourth quarter. » In August and September exports were still down on the previous month.
Problem child logistics
According to Jandura, however, the chaos in logistics is likely to continue for a few more months. “This is where missing containers, the shortage of skilled workers and regional corona outbreaks make themselves felt.” Even with the supply bottlenecks for raw materials and intermediate products, there is initially no improvement in sight.
Many German companies are sitting on well-filled order books, but due to a lack of materials and delivery bottlenecks, they are sometimes unable to process orders at the usual pace.
Goods “Made in Germany” to the value of 121.3 billion euros were exported in October. That was 8.1 percent more than in October 2020. Imports rose within the year by 17.3 percent to 108.5 billion euros. In the first ten months of 2021, the export of goods recorded an increase of 13.9 percent to 1,132.2 billion euros. Imports increased by 15.7 percent to 977.4 billion euros.
According to an assessment by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), the export increase is only gratifying at first glance. “A large part of the increase is due to increased imported costs for important preliminary products and raw materials that our exporters pass on to their foreign customers,” explained DIHK foreign trade director Volker Treier. The recent significant drop in industrial orders from outside Europe also indicated that the air in international business was getting thinner.
Water in the wine
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) also poured water into the wine and revised its forecast downwards for this year. The BDI now expects a price-adjusted (real) increase in exports of goods and services of eight percent. Most recently, the association had assumed about 8.5 percent. “Many industries, especially vehicle construction, continue to suffer from supply bottlenecks for semiconductors,” said BDI Managing Director Joachim Lang.
Economists see the increase as a good sign for the start of the expected difficult winter, also because the data on industrial production also published this week were surprisingly robust. “The October data on the industry are at least an edifying start to the fourth quarter,” said chief economist Thomas Gitzel from Lichtenstein’s VP Bank. “That is important, because the winter months will demand a lot from companies.” Material shortages in combination with the worsening corona situation are likely to burden the gross domestic product.
Economists recently assumed that Europe’s largest economy was barely growing at the end of the year, possibly stagnating or even shrinking. “The strong increase in exports and imports in October increases the chances that the German economy will be able to avoid a mini-recession due to the fourth Corona wave at the turn of the year,” said Sebastian Dullien from the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK) of the union Hans -Böckler Foundation.
Source From: Stern
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
