The good result of Bopreal helped contain the CCL dollar. However, there are several factors putting pressure on parallel dollars. The question is, until when?
Although the week ended with financial dollars and the Dolar blue downwards partly influenced by the good results of the bonus for importers, the gap with official dollar It was located at values close to 60%. But what are the causes and what is expected in the future?
1. Pressure from importers
According to the weekly LCG report, part of the pressure on the parallels is due to importers trying buy dollar CCL to cancel their commitments abroad, both new and previously assumed. The increase in the gap, on the other hand, made the convenience of subscribing bopreal to earn dollars increase, acting as containment barrier to the rise of the CCLat least in the part of the incentives for importers with commercial debts.
2. Negative rates
He rise of parallel dollars It also comes hand in hand with very negative real peso rates and a real exchange rate that is more than 25% more appreciated than at the time of the devaluation. This situation will gradually impose more tensions in the exchange market, until reaching the April harvest and settlement period.
3. Inflation
In parallel, as LCG highlights, for the first time the weekly food inflation rose slightly compared to the previous week, for the first time since the post-devaluation peak in December. With the official dollar almost still, this rise may be due to the rise in parallel dollars as well as the effects of the second round arising from salary increases and other prices in the economy.
Inflation-Prices-Supermarket
Ignacio Petunchi
4. Official dollar
In line with what was announced, the BCRA maintains the crawling peg of 2% on the official exchange rate which closes the week at $822.98. With prices moving at a rate 10 times higher, the improvement in competitiveness is eroding at an accelerated pace: 43 days after the exchange rate correction, the profit achieved was cut in half.
The market is beginning to discount that the policy of anchoring the exchange rate will not be sustainable until April. The demand for coverage in the ROFEX is paid $857 by the end of February (+4%) and $930 by the end of May (+13%).
5. Omnibus Law
The ups and downs of politics evident in the treatment of Omnibus Law, may have exerted additional pressure, but we understand that it is only marginal. The gap with the official dollar returned to levels of 60%.
What is expected going forward? The consulting firm LCG is not “optimistic” regarding a moderation of parallel quotes due to the effect of channeling importer demand to Bopreal, “especially when the official dollar remains practically anchored.”
Source: Ambito
