Behind the jump that took December inflation to 25.5%, shocked by the 54% devaluationthe forecasts for January indicate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) would continue in the double digits. In this scenario, some consulting firms observe a deceleration of almost 6 percentage points while others provide a similar figure to that registered in the last month of last year.
This way, During the first two months of Javier Milei’s government, the CPI could accumulate a level close to 45%or even overcome it.
The S&T consulting projected for the first month of the year a price variation of 19.6%, which they classified as “very high, but below expectations.” In that sense, they explained that The lower value is due to the fact that the “slowdown that began the last week of December was maintained throughout the month of January”.
For its part, the Analytica consulting places January inflation above 20 points. The director of this consultancy, Claudio Caprarulo, he told Ambit that he CPI would be at 22% in the first month of the year.
Meanwhile, the economist Gonzalo Semillaof the Bahía Blanca Economic Studies Center (CREEBA), projected that the price variation in January could be close to 24%. From Eco Go, Rocio Bisangpointed out to this medium that They expect inflation to be around 21.2%.
From the Freedom and Progress Foundation They predicted that the CPI will be at 19.4% -the most optimistic of the projections- and they immersed themselves fully in the political debate that is taking place in Congress about the Executive’s megaproject: “Approving the law takes us away from hyperinflation”he assured.
“Data for the second half of the month indicate weekly variations of less than 2%, comparable with the behavior at the end of October. This behavior favored the deceleration of the monthly rate, the peak of which was reached in the first week of January when it reached 29.7%,” the decrease is explained in the report from the Libertad y Progreso Foundation.
January inflation: keys to price advances
“The rise of retail prices In January it was led by recreation, a seasonally key factor in all Januarys, but which this year had a greater increase, of 36.8%due to the impact of the adjustment of the official exchange rate and the general increase in prices,” highlighted the report from the S&T consulting.
Regarding the food and non-alcoholic beveragesthe report places this division with an increase of 16.3%showing a slowdown of the index by 13.4 percentage points compared to the advance in December (29.7%) and it is argued that it is “result of a slowdown in recent weeks”.
However, from CREEBA they highlighted that the jump in food and non-alcoholic beverages was close to 25%.
Inflation dairy inflation Dairy CPI Super Prices
Mariano Fuchila
Also during January, strong increases were observed in the meat, according to C&T at 16.3%, although they emphasize that there is a slowdown in prices in the weekly evolution. “ The greatest slowdown occurred in vegetableswhich practically did not vary between January and December, followed by fruits, which averaged a monthly increase of 11.7%,” it was added.
January inflation: what projection did Cavallo make?
Sunday Cavalloformer Minister of Economy during Menemism and the government of Fernando de la Ruastated that, according to his measurements, “inflation subsided in January, but so did the real exchange rate”. In that sense, he explained: “The average monthly inflation rate measured by online prices was falling from the second week of January, when it was 32%, to 26% on January 25.”
And he added: “The fall in the inflation rate of the last 30 days was very pronounced in the first week of January, when it was at 35% to be at 13% on January 25. Taking into account the magnitude of this drop, it is possible that, in the six days following January 25, The average monthly rate has approached 20%“.
However, he stated that the evolution of online prices, which does not take into account the price of several of the services controlled by the State that have not yet been adjusted, exceeds the index prepared by INDEC.
According to the IMF, inflation will rise in the short term
According to the update of the World Economic Outlook report who presented the International Monetary Fund (IMF) In Argentina “the realignment of relative prices and the elimination of old price controls, the latest depreciation of the currency and its transfer to prices are expected to raise inflation in the short term”.
However, the agency’s chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchaspointed to Ambit that “The monthly inflation rate (in Argentina) is expected to be much lower, in the single digits, towards the middle of the year” and projected that it could be located “around 150% by the end of 2024”.
Source: Ambito
