And he added: “You can get out of inflation with a shock policy but you can get out of the dollar with an exchange policy of several months of devaluation of 4% or 5% per month, which is a higher rate than the inflation that exists today.” “Although it could have an impact on prices, it will be less than the devaluation so it could recover the real exchange rate by 10%. That is what is estimated,” he added.
In this sense, he warned about the annual inflation of 2021 and what is projected for 2022: “For this year we calculate that it will close at 51% and that by 2022 it will be a little higher than 57%, a product of which we must adjust a series of values that are frozen today, such as tariffs, “he predicted.
“There will not be a major devaluation but a daily devaluation, that is, an increased crawling peg, at a rate of 4% to 5%, from January to April, until that process is exhausted a little with an acceleration of inflation that is quite important. “, He said.
Asked about statements by President Alberto Fernández, Vice President Cristina Kirchner and other referents of the Frente de Todos against the “adjustment of the Fund”, Ferreres analyzed that “they have to sell it to the militancy but they are going to do what they have to do , as they have done other times. Of course, always with doubts and that is why the parallel dollar is so high compared to the official dollar and the net reserves are much lower than the gross ones “.
In his opinion, “the IMF is going to make a fiscal adjustment in which it will try to lower the deficit and public spending as much as possible, at least 1 or 2 points of GDP. Then, we are going to find ourselves with a better situation of the public accounts that will require less money from the Central Bank as it was in this year, but due to the effect of relative prices we will have a little higher inflation “.
“From the macroeconomic point of view, it will be better oriented than this year, in which there was little increase in relative prices but a lot of monetary issuance,” he added.
“A very serious problem that the Argentine economy has is the exchange gap,” he warned
And, about the closing of the radio interview, he spoke of the exchange gap between the official dollar and the blue dollar: “A very serious problem that the Argentine economy has is the exchange gap and it will not be fixed very quickly. Perhaps, drop a bit but by the end of 2022 we estimate a gap of 65% to 70%. “
Source From: Ambito
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