After the increase established for energy rates, in SMEs and businesses They assure that profitability margins can support the increase in costs and the drop in sales less and less, which warns businessmen of a possible closure scenario, similar to that seen in the government of Mauricio Macri, starting next quarter.
The impact of the increase ordered by the Ministry of Energy, which leads Eduardo Rodríguez Chirilloin the seasonal price of electricity, its power and the transportation service, will be determined based on the size of the business.
In this sense, Julián Rojo, specialist in macroeconomics and energy, identifies that 7% of SMEs smaller size would have a increase in energy prices of 430%which could reach up to 500% if increases are added for the distribution service. Another 15% of the demand, that responds to medium and large businesses, would have an increase of 210% only for the concepts indicated by the Government.
The panorama is of considerable concern to the owners of SMEs, who have already encountered an average drop in 28.5% of retail salesaccording to CAME, but which reached up to 50% in items such as furniture or appliances, according to off-screen consultations.
From the entity itself, in dialogue with this medium, a moderate scenario is presented, but to pay attention: they understand that increases of such caliber They will be very difficult to move and, although they do not verify closures or layoffs, they do detect a scenario of low activity in the coming months.
Impact of the energy increase on costs
Faced with the concrete signs of a recessive scenario, the questions that run through the sectoral chambers are the sustainability and durability of this “bad drink,” as President Javier Milei initially called it at the beginning of this period.
From Industriales Pymes Argentinos, the entity led by Daniel Rosato, they even dare to put a number on the inflationary overheating: “If we have to endure an increase in energy of around 117% between February and April, we are talking about any consumer product mass that requires intensive energy to produce will have a rise between 15% and 20%”.
The increase not only falls on the merchant’s cash, but also on the industrial productive sector. The sector sets its sights on the second quarter of the year: Rosato estimates that from April-May “the crisis may deepen” and possibly “let’s face a situation of business closure” aggravated depending on the entry of imported products.
The memory of the recession during the Macri government
“The impact on rates is going to be tremendous. The transfer to prices will be carried out, the problem is going to be sustaining the activity,” added Mauro González, head of the General SME Confederation. Then, he warned: “We estimate an abrupt drop, a closure of 25 thousand SMEs, the same number as during the Macri administration.”
There is one piece of information that precedes the forecast: Between 2015 and 2019, 7,850 manufacturing SMEs closed. At the same time, Rosato points out a drop in exports that cannot be compensated within the domestic market. González maintains the same line: “The increase in unemployment and the greatest drop in consumption will be reflected after July,” he warns.
In this context, Sergio Echebarrena, a businessman who is a member of the May 25 Productive Movement, looks for strategies to maintain profit margins: “everything depends on your profitability, if you can function only by paying expenses or increase a product that is easier to sell, increase less another more profitable,” he exemplifies.
Regarding clients, the businessman adds: “you can maintain the price with those you have the greatest relationship, and with the rest try to transfer the price. “It is a very difficult situation,” he concludes and highlights that in the sector textile, gastronomy (with large electric ovens) and metallurgical (with welding machines, presses and sheet metal bending machines) the effect of the increase in rates will mostly be seen.
Source: Ambito
