In fact, private sector wage earners are still lagging behind: although in September they grew 2.4% yoy (improvement corresponding to 140 thousand more jobs compared to the same month last year) have not yet recovered one of every three jobs destroyed during the first eight months of 2020.
No trend change appears
We have already mentioned that formal own-account workers – mainly monotax -, public workers and industrial salaried employment – especially the food, automotive, and plastics, machinery, appliances and technology manufacturing industries – explain all the growth, pandemic through , of formal employment in the last two years.
However, “when we regroup the categories to watch the film with a greater temporal extension, we note that the trend in recent years was that of a growth in registered employment, driven mainly by formal self-employment and public salaried workers, which is not altered, which is indicative that the difficulty in generating registered private salaried employment persists, “said Ecolatina.
For the consulting firm, private salaried employment -which is not only the one with the greatest labor protections but also the one that allows financing the pay-as-you-go pension scheme to a greater extent – continued to lose participation in the total number of registered workers: so In 2012 it represented 55% of the total, at the end of 2015 52%, at the end of 2019 49% and in September of this year, 48%.
What happened to public employment
Public salaried employment, for its part, went from representing 30% of total formal salaried employment in 2012 to 36% today. On the other hand, it should also be noted that the expansion of self-employment hides a significant heterogeneity insofar as it is made up of a 10% advance in social monotax, associated with workers in the lowest categories.
According to Ecolatina, the question is whether the creation of direct jobs by the State is “genuine” -in the sense that the provision of goods and services by the public sector is increased- or if it constitutes one of the most accessible forms for a good part of society to access registered employment. “The evidence suggests a constant absorption of workers throughout the last decade: 60% of the increase in total registered employment in 2013-2021 is explained by public employees (registered private employees fell in the same period), giving some account that this modality partly mitigated the impacts that the economic cycles had in the labor market “, indicates the report.
For the next few months, the consulting firm foresees that the dynamism of the self-employed and public wage earners will continue its course, pulling formal employment. “Although we expect the industry to operate with more ups and downs, we do not believe that this dynamic will affect its role as a job creator, at least in the coming months,” he said.
Source From: Ambito
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